DK seems determined to only offer 2 games slates, as Monday they’ve given us 2 separate 2 games slates. The first one is Epic League CIS 2021, which is what this article is for, I’ll post for the NA slate during the day Monday. The CIS games lock at 9:45 am EDT and they are:
Gambit (63% implied win probability) vs Spirit
VP (89%) vs Trident
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool appears correct, none of these teams sub nor have they made recent roster changes.
Given the Vegas odds, my assumption is that most people are going to prioritize VP over Gambit on this slate. Sanji will probably be chalk because he’s cheap and on the biggest favorite. So will Ax1le, he’s definitely underpriced. If the slate was bigger than 2 games, Ax1le would still be a great play while Sanji would become just meh. He’s simply a price play because of the 2 game slate. That means…you guessed it, I’m going to look to fade him. I’ll play a Trident one-off over Sanji in this spot.
I do think Mir and Degster, Degster in particular, are a bit too cheap. Spirit are a good team and this is definitely a winnable matchup for them. My guess is that most people who play Spirit are going to go Degster + Mir + Yekindar + Jame + Sanji and then a 3rd Spirit player in the last spot. The 3 remaining Spirit players all score fairly similarly, sdy has recently pulled himself a bit, but not by huge margins. In GPP’s I like leaving a little money on the table to stay unique. If you can afford Chopper play Magixx anyways and leave some money on the table, things like that.
I don’t really have any interest in Trident outside of one-offs. I expect VP to be playing with full effort given their recent struggles, so Trident stacks are a no-go for me.
With pricing fairly tight, I expect most of the ownership to land in the mid-range. That’s Axile, Mir, and Degster mostly. Sh1ro, Yekindar, and Jame will dominate the high end ownership, but it’s hard to fit them at captain without playing multiple bottom fraggers.
Hobbit is again (as he usually does) go very overlooked at captain. He absolutely has top score on the slate potential, and should have low single digit captain ownership. Everyone is either going to spend up to get one of the aforementioned players above him, or drop down to Ax1le below him.
You can make a case for value captain on this slate. I don’t like Sanji as his role simply doesn’t offer upside, but guys like sdy and nafany are intriguing. Both of them occasionally get hot and put up big games. If Sh1ro/Ax1le/Jame/Yekindar are the top scorers on the slate, a nafany captain that scores well point per dollar wise could be the winner.
I’ll be back early in the day Monday with a write-up for the NA games, good luck in the morning tournaments!