For our 2nd slate of the day we’ve got some good old fashioned NA (and Brazilian teams playing in NA) CounterStrike. It’s another 2 game slate, and lock is at 5:30 pm EDT. The games are:
Godsent (62% implied win probability) vs Triumph
TeamOne (69%) vs RBG
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Skullz is still in the player pool for TeamOne. Do NOT play him, he is no longer on the team, xns is and will be playing. Playerpool is otherwise correct, none of these teams sub.
Keep in mind when you look at any stats (or projections) for this slate that both Godsent and TeamOne spent a good part of the last 3 months getting beat up in Europe. Now that’s not to say that both teams can’t lose, Triumph and RBG are very much live, but remember to take low projections for Godsent and TeamOne with a grain of salt. Of particular importance for TeamOne is xns. While the rest of TeamOne was getting beaten up in Europe, he was winning in South America. TeamOne as a whole has a map win percent of 33% over the past 3 months, while xns’ personal map win percent is 66%. I bring that up because xns has the highest FP/r on the team over the past 3 months. However, if you look at just the one month data, where TeamOne is 8-4 on maps since returning to NA and xns has been playing with them the whole time, he’s actually tied with prt for lowest FP/r on the team. Long story short, xns is wildly overpriced and actually the bottom fragger (or close to it) for TeamOne. malbsMD has been the star since returning to NA, and he and Maluke are the top targets here, with pesadelo the 3rd fragger.
My expectation is that most DFS players don’t follow these teams super closely since they’re rarely on slates these days, so we should actually be able to take advantage of this, I don’t plan on having any xns given his elevated price.
The other thing we can do to take advantage of this slate is be over the field on the underdogs. I particularly like Triumph, I think they have a solid shot to beat Godsent here. Godsent really struggled in Europe and then got swept by Extra Salt in their first game in NA. Now, Extra Salt are the best team in NA right now, but it’s still not a great showing from Godsent.
Meanwhile, TeamOne just got trounced in a match against Bad News Bears, they are definitely beatable for RBG. I still like the TeamOne side better, but will definitely have a few lineups with RBG if I do decide to MME.
Malbsmd is far and away my favorite captain on this slate. He’s been dominant since TeamOne got back to NA, I love him as a captain here. The best part is his 3 month stats are only pedestrian, so he likely won’t have overwhelming ownership. His teammate Maluke is also worth a shot.
Felps and Dumau are my captains of choice for Godsent, although I’ll likely end up under the field on Godsent as a whole and therefore them too.
Cynic is my second favorite captain on the slate, I like him a lot as he has the best FP/r numbers over the past 3 months on the slate. Again, much of that is due to Godsent and TeamOne losing a ton in Europe, but it’s still impressive nonetheless.
wiz is an interesting value captain for RBG. The AWPer has really stepped up his game over the past few months. I’d have a couple shares of him in MME for sure.
Good luck on Monday afternoon!