Flashpoint continues on Saturday, and we have yet another 2 game slate. Lock is again at noon EST, and the games are:
OG (60% implied win probability) vs Vitality
Complexity (72%) vs Fnatic
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Both sides of the OG/Vitality game have some extra players. Don’t play ISSAA, RpK, or Nivera, none of them are playing. Other than that, no subs, and everyone who is playing is in the player pool.
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Vitality looked like the best team in the world for much of 2020, particularly towards the end of it, but so far 2021 has been a disaster. They reached a new low point last match, getting swept by fellow French team DBL Poney. Dropping RpK for Kyojin has not helped, Kyojin has really struggled so far. That said, Zywoo is still at worst the 1B player in the world, so he’ll undoubtedly have tons of ownership on this slate. His teammates though, will likely be low owned. I like Vitality 3 stacks a lot in GPP’s.
On The OG side of that matchup, it’s now Valde who is somewhat underpriced and will likely garner heavy ownership. Strangely enough, considering they’re decent favorites, 3 stacking OG is also a solid GPP move. I expect most people who play OG to do 2 + Zywoo, making OG 3 stacks somewhat unique.
Both sides of the Col/Fnatic game come in struggling. The difference is Col are losing to Big and Furia, while Fnatic are losing to EPG Family and Young Ninjas (technically that was only 3/5 Fnatic members, but still). I expect Col to right the ship here. Their pricing is back to being correct, after last time out saw K0nfig priced like a bottom fragger and Rush priced up. Granted, K0nfig has been performing like a bottom fragger lately, as he’s on one of his cold streaks that unfortunately get mixed in with his red hot streaks. All 5 members of Col are in play here.
As for Fnatic, since it’s a 2 game slate you can’t ignore them entirely if you MME. At this point, I personally see Krimz and Jackinho as the clear top 2 fantasy plays, and then mix in Brollan or JW in 3 stacks. I also like Jackinho as a one-off to differentiate you from all the lineups that use Rush for salary savings.
I’m really interested to see where Zywoo’s captain ownership lands here. I’m expecting the majority of people who play him to do it with an OG 2 stack (or 3 stack for that matter), which means they most likely won’t captain him. If his captain ownership can stay under 20%, I love him as a play on this slate.
I’d expect BlameF to get a lot of ownership at captain. He’s been relatively quiet lately, but is always a threat to put up huge numbers. I also like K0nfig at captain in Col 3 stacks. When they steamroll teams, he tends to be the one driving.
From Fnatic, I’ll consider Krimz and Jackinho at captain, but I’m more likely to use them as a flex stack. Fnatic tends to win dirty when they win, which doesn’t always lead to great fantasy scores.
Valde will likely get a bunch of captain ownership since he’s fairly cheap relative to Mantuu and FlameZ. All 3 players have similar upside, so I’d prefer to get up to Mantuu/FlameZ for their reduced (captain) ownership.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!