Flashpoint is back on Friday, with a pretty interesting 2 gamer. Lock is back to noon EDT and the games are:

NiP (82% implied win probability) vs Anonymo

FunPlusPhoenix (71%) vs Hyenas

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

We finally the highly anticipated debut of Device for NiP. He is replacing Nawwk, who is still in the player pool. Don’t play Nawwk.

Also, in order for Hyenas to be able to keep their spot (earned as North before the organization folded), they have to have 3 members on the roster. Because of that, CajunB is listed as on their team and Fessor is technically a sub. All indications are the CajunB won’t actually play (and he isn’t in the DK pool), but I just wanted to clear that up for anyone who went to the HLTV team page and saw CajunB but no Fessor.

Slate Analysis

You can basically throw stats out the window on this slate. NiP are likely to have redesigned what they’re doing around Device, so everyone’s stats are likely to change a bit. Device should take a much larger kill share than Nawwk did, thus we may need to temper expectation on everyone else relative to their recent stats.

Even though it is Device’s debut, they’ve had plenty of time to practice and should roll over Anonymo here. If you MME, sure, take a couple shots on Anonymo, but I’m not expecting much out of them.

In the other game, Hyenas haven’t even played a match that’s been recorded on HLTV. All they’ve played as a team are 2 Bo1’s in the IEM Summer EU Open Qualifier #2. They beat Budapest 5 16-7 and lost to Mad Lions 16-14. In their win it was Borup who top fragged and in the loss it was Gade. Dating back to the last couple months for North, Aizy has the best numbers. I do think the lack of stats on HLTV somewhat broke DK’s pricing algorithm though. Aizy and Gade are priced way at the bottom of the slate, probably because they don’t have any recent stats. They shouldn’t be as cheap as they are. Borup and Kjaerbye have both been bottom fraggers for their respective T1 teams, but should have better opportunities to frag for Hyenas. Fessor is really the only player I’m not interested in, he had very mediocre stats in the T3 scene, and appears to be entry fragging for Hyenas (based on his FK/FD stats from their games), which is often a role with limited upside as it leads to a lot of empty rounds.

Of course, FPX are the heavy favorites. I spent so much time on Hyenas though because I do think they are undervalued by Vegas here. 4/5 players have played in the T1 scene recently (or at least T2 depending on how you’d classify North). As I always mention with FPX, while they have the talent to beat just about anyone in the world, they also have the ability to lose to just about anyone. I like Hyenas a lot in GPP’s.

On the FPX side, Zehn has started to look like his old self again. His one month stats, which are admittedly a sample size of only just over 200 rounds, are outstanding. He’s far too cheap in this spot. I imagine most people will play him and Farlig plus one of Styko or Maden. If you can fit both of them instead of Farlig for example, you’re likely to have a fairly unique build.

Top Captains

Device is my favorite captain on the slate. Sure he’s coming into a new situation, but AWPing is AWPing, and I expect him to mow down Anonymo. He’s expensive, but there’s plenty of value in the other game to make up for his cost. Hampus is also worth a look as a moderate salary saver. He can put together some huge (and some terrible) maps and should have low captain ownership.

Zehn will likely get a decent amount of captain ownership, but he’s a fine play. So is Farlig. If you can make Styko or Maden fit, they should have low ownership, although I don’t think either is quite as good of an on paper play as Device. You’re looking to leverage off of him at captain by playing them.

Of course, I’ll be on Hyenas quite a bit in general, but probably not a ton at captain. That of course is because I don’t have the slightest clue who is going to top frag. If I had to choose, I’d probably go Aizy at captain, but really everyone except Fessor is in play for me.

That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!

 

Leave a Reply