Flashpoint has a day off Thursday so we’re treated to a “Republeague Tipos” 2 game slate. Why they chose this over Spring Sweet Spring (or preferably a combination) I’m not sure, but we at least have 2 familiar teams on the slate. Of course, those teams are playing each other so we’ll delve into the unfamiliar teams. Lock is at 7 am EDT, and the games are:
Skade (64% implied win probability) vs Sprout
Young Ninjas (69%) vs Caronte
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
None of these teams sub*, rosters on DK are correct.
*Sprout technically has a 6th man, but he’s never played.
Pricing is loose enough on this slate that I think most people are going to jam double favorites, especially from the Young Ninjas/Caronte game. It’s not so loose that you don’t have to worry about it, but it’s not tight like Wednesday was either.
The Skade vs Sprout matchup has a battle of 2 players on the all “great-stats-but-terrible-on-DK-slates” team in SHiPZ vs faveN. SHiPZ’ stats have actually started to decline, he now sits just below Dennyslaw in 3 month FP/r and there’s a solid gap in the 1 month data. And there’s no small sample size error here on the 1 month data, Skade have played almost as many rounds over the past month as any other team on the slate has played in the past 3 months. They’ve played an insane amount of CS. Sprout have looked terrible lately, but they have been playing up in competition for many of their games. That said, Skade are also at the top of the T3 scene (I’d probably even call them T2), so it’s not an easy matchup by any means. However, I do like the ownership aspect on Sprout, so I like them in GPP’s.
The second game is where we can really get an edge on this slate. I’d venture to guess 90+ percent of DFS players have never heard of Caronte OR a single player on Young Ninjas (they’ll only recognize the team because of their parent team, NiP). Most will blindly follow Vegas/projections that heavily weigh Vegas, and end up on Young Ninjas.
We can take advantage of this in a couple of ways. The obvious one is playing Caronte. They haven’t played a ton as a team, but they at least appear to be somewhat competitive in the T3 scene so far. One note though, for the gamelog lookers, the Bo1 where they took Endpoint to Double OT, Endpoint was playing with their coach, so don’t give them too much credit. I think they’re likely a bit undervalued by Vegas here. SunPayus leads the slate in FP/r, both over the past 3 months and the past month, and is a strong play either in a stack or a one-off. Pricing is surprisingly sharp here, as the team is priced in the right order and no one sticks out as a crazy value.
The other way we can take advantage of the lack of knowledge of these teams is within Young Ninjas. The public will likely see the pricing and assume that the higher priced players are Young Ninjas better players. And sure, they do average ever so slightly FP/r, but over the past 3 months everyone on the team is within .07 FP/r of each other. Legitimately anyone could be the top fragger any given day. Lineups that intentionally pay down to leave money on the table with Young Ninjas stacks should be unique and are barely giving up any expected points in doing so. I like this idea a lot for GPP’s.
I expect most hand builders to stick with what they know in the captain slot. Most projections that heavily weight Vegas are going to have Dennyslaw and/or SHiPZ at the top because they score more FP/r than anyone on Young Ninjas, so optimizers will favor them in the captain slot. That’s a recipe for chalk. Dennyslaw and SHiPZ are fine plays, but both are going to have high ownership.
Even faveN on the other side will likely have pretty high ownership, as I’d expect most people who stack Sprout to use a Sprout captain. faveN is the obvious choice, his numbers are far better than anyone else’s. Slaxz- is a decent pivot, he can put up big numbers on occasion as well.
With that said, my favorite play is to use a captain from the 2nd game. The Caronte side is fairly easy, SunPayus is the clear top fragger (he AWPs). I like him a lot on this slate as I don’t expect him to have super high ownership, he’s probably my favorite captain overall. DeathZz also puts up strong numbers, and should have virtually 0 captain ownership, I like him too.
On the Young Ninjas side, it’s actually Mann3n that leads the team in kills per round. He also has the most 4k’s + aces over the past 3 month on the team. Of course, he also dies a ton which keeps his fantasy numbers low, but I think he has the best upside on Young Ninjas. He’s my favorite captain from them. Again though, I do want to stress everyone on the team is capable of putting up the top score. On bigger slates this means I’d stay away at captain, on this 2 gamer it means I’ll be looking at the cheap guys, nilo and Sapec, who should have almost no captain ownership.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!