Wednesday gives us another day of Flashpoint, and another 2 game set. Lock is at 12 pm EDT again, and the games are:
Heroic (85% implied win probability) vs Sprout
G2 (57%) vs Faze
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
I don’t know if it’s because of how rosters work with Flashpoint or what, but DK has been adding former players like crazy this week. Wednesday we have Borup, KennyS, and Kjaerbye all in the player pool. None of them are playing do NOT play them.
None of these teams sub, so no sub risk.
While Monday saw Vitality lose as huge favorites, I’m not expecting the same here. Heroic have looked great since adding Refrezh and Sjuush, and I expect them to easily handle Sprout. The problem with them for fantasy is they have very spread out and fairly random kill shares. For whatever reason, instead of pricing them all about the same, DK insists on having different price slots for every team. This means there’s always someone(s) underpriced for Heroic. Wednesday, and frankly most of the time, it’s Refrezh. Look for him to have elevated ownership since he’s cheap. If you can fit a Heroic 3 stack without him in it, I like it.
Of course, you could one-off Sprout and hope that they at least put up a fight. Slaxz- would be my one-off of choice, but if you need the extreme savings of denis or Spiidi I don’t mind if. You’re basically looking for one of them to put up 50 in a loss while the expensive players on the rest of the slate are the ones who go off.
In the other game, Hunter and Niko are both priced up. I expect that most people will prioritize playing Heroic, which will force them on to either cheap G2 or Faze. This could leave either or both of the Kovac duo (Hunter and Niko are cousins for anyone unaware) underowned. I tend to be a bit higher on G2 than Vegas/the public are, I think they should be slightly larger favorites here than they are. I expect Broky to have pretty high ownership here, and while he’s a very good cash/single entry play, I’m going to try to fit G2 3 stacks in GPP’s. Nexa will likely also be chalk, but I don’t really see a way to avoid him if I force G2. I’d like to find the extra money to play Amanek, who seems to be AWPing more than Niko now, but I’m not going to stack Sprout in order to do so.
If you go Faze, which is a fine play in GPP’s, don’t skip over Twistzz to save money. He’s their best rifler, and if they win he’ll likely put up strong numbers. Neither Coldzera nor rain are great at this point in their careers, but they definitely offer salary savings and occasionally turn back the clock and put up huge maps.
This is a decent day to go value captain, however I think a lot of the field will do it. You’ll probably see pretty decent ownership on Refrezh captain, as it saves a lot of money, and you do really need it on this slate.
I’d like to captain one of the studs, but it’s hard to fit. Hunter and Niko are both solid captain options, as G2 has a very narrow kill distribution. Nexa might even see some captain ownership as he’s basically the only way you can fit a Heroic/G2 3/3 with both Niko and Hunter. If you want to captain either Hunter or Niko you basically have to play someone from Sprout. Which is fine but keep in mind it narrows in a build even Hunter or Niko individually has low ownership.
Cadian and Teses should see low captain ownership because of pricing, so if you can manage to fit them I like the move. Do keep in mind that most people who captain them will pair them with Faze though.
Lastly, Twistzz and Broky are solid captains from Faze. Again, even if they’re low owned keep in mind that most people who use them will have similar builds, maybe leave some cash on the table if you can.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!