ESL Pro League continues on Friday, as we have another 2 game slate. Lock is at 9:30 am EST, and the games are:
Complexity (66% implied win probability) vs NiP
Astralis (62%) vs Furia
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Astralis and Furia both technically have 6 man rosters, but neither team has subbed at all recently. There’s no sub risk here.
Pricing on this slate is super tight at the top but super loose at the bottom, meaning it won’t be hard to fit Device and BlameF in the same lineup with 1 at captain. I expect that to be the route most people go. I expect both NiP and Furia to come in a bit underowned. NiP + Furia will be virtually unowned, and per the odds both teams will win about 13% of the time. That’s worth devoting a few lineups to if you MME.
I don’t think anything will be super sneaky, but I again prefer the cheap players on the underdogs to the comparably priced favorites. I like Nawwk better than Rush and I like Vini and arT better than Xyp. I’m still not sold on Junior’s role, even though he is the AWP they have him throwing a lot of util in support. He’s simply not that involved in many rounds, which really caps his upside.
Nothing really jumps out at me among the favorites, everyone seems priced about right.
With plenty of value, I’ll be captaining players I think can put up the top score on the slate. For me that’s:
Device and Dupreeh
BlameF, Poizon, and K0nfig
Kscerato, Yuurih and arT
I guess Nawwk and Rez.
I’m least likely to use the NiP players at captain. One way you can differentiate is by playing Dupreeh captain in a lineup that could fit Device captain or Poizon captain in a lineup that could fit Blame. We saw that work to perfection Thursday, as an Axile captain lineup that could’ve fit Sh1ro won the $10, and was only entered 2 times. For a 3/3 that uses a favorites that’s a really low amount of dupes on a 2 game slate.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday.