We have another 2 gamers on Thursday, this time from ESL Pro League. Lock is at 9:30 am EST and the games are:

Heroic (62% implied win probability) vs NiP

Astralis (52%) vs Gambit

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

Astralis is the only team that technically has a 6 man roster, but they haven’t subbed Bubzkji in a long time. There should be no sub risk.

Slate Analysis

Instead of giving individual plays I like, which ends up being half the guys since it’s only a 2 gamer, I’m going to talk a bit about how I’m going to approach this slate. I expect the most popular build to be 3 Heroic + some combination of Astralis and Gambit. Plenty of people are going to run 2/1’s from that game I’m sure. What I don’t expect many people to do, is run 3 Gambit or Astralis and a 2-1 from the Heroic/NiP game. I do think Heroic are the better team so I’m not going to go overboard on NiP stacks, but maybe Nawwk outscores Refrezh and suddenly by playing Nawwk as a one off I’ve passed a ton of lineups who used Refrezh for their salary savings.

Aside from the strategy, I also think Gambit should be favorites over Astralis. It feels wild to say but I think Gambit are the best team in the world right now, and Astralis have been scuffling. Now, if there’s any team that can get right after only a couple week break, it’s Astralis, but I just think Gambit are better right now. I’ll have my exposure from that game more tilted towards Gambit.

Top Captains

With how much I like Gambit, it also makes sense that I like them at captain. I like Sh1ro, Axile, and Hobbit.

On the Astralis side, I like Device and Dupreeh.

Both Heroic and Nip spread their kills out pretty evenly, Heroic in particular. Heroic players definitely have high upside, but it’s really all 5 of them now with this new lineup. I’d say Cadian has the highest likelihood of an explosion, but I’m not even entirely sure that’s the case anymore. I’m going to have all 5 guys in my player pool but won’t be forcing any of them in.

For NiP, it’s a similar story except with less upside. I’m unlikely to use them at captain, maybe Nawwk if the salary savings can help me get to a stud filled lineup, but I don’t really think the savings are necessary.

That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!

 

 

 

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