Wednesday’s Snow Sweet Snow is practically a T1 slate, as 3/4 teams are routinely in tier 1 events and even (ex)Winstrike have qualified for a couple. The slate starts early, lock is at 5am. The games are:
Mouz (53% implied win probability) vs Fnatic
EG (56%) vs Ex-Winstrike
One thing I do want to mention before we jump in. Ex-Winstrike have 2 games scheduled at the same time. My expectation would be that they are able to get their schedule moved around and play both games, and Snow Sweet Snow (the game on the slate) does have a bigger prize pool than the other tournament, but there is always the slight chance that they have to forfeit against EG. If you MME I would consider doing 1 game stack of Mouz vs Fnatic to accommodate for this chance. Like I said though, the likeliest outcome is one of the games gets moved to earlier/later in the day and there’s no issue for the slate.
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
None of these teams sub, and no super recent roster changes for any of them either. Ex-Winstrike didn’t change their roster at all, the Winstrike organization wasn’t meeting their contractual obligations so the team left. DK also finally took Flusha out of the player pool (again), so the rosters are correct.
Pricing is loose on this slate, with no one above $8.6k. That will likely lead to the favorites having increased ownership even though both games are barely better odds than a coinflip. Once again I’ll be above the field on the underdogs in this spot.
Somewhere we can look to take advantage of before it’s reflected in the stats is Fnatic switching Jackinho to primary AWP and JW to rifler/secondary AWP. I actually think this benefits both players. Jackinho has always been an AWPer previously, and looked really good on Tuesday. Meanwhile, JW can keep on doing his aggressive/creative plays. The problem before was that his aim hasn’t been great recently, so when he missed AWP shots he was usually dead before he could shoot another as players would turn on him. Now, he can at least spray with his rifle and likely end up with more kills even if his first bullet isn’t a headshot. I like Jackinho a lot as a GPP play in this spot.
On the other side, Mouz have really struggled since adding Dexter. I’m not even really sure if it’s fair to blame Dexter, I think it’s less about him being not a great IGL and more about Karrigan being a really good IGL. Mouz were a team that would win with terrible fantasy scores when Karrigan was IGL, which is usually a sign of teams outmaneuvering their opponents (or getting lucky, but Mouz did it fairly consistently). Regardless of why, Mouz have been straight up bad recently. Maybe they started to right the ship as the did 2-0 SKADE on Tuesday, but one of the maps went to OT. If you play Mouz, Ropz is the top target, and everyone except Dexter is in play.
For EG, oBo has quickly shown he’s going to be a top fragger for this team, he and Brehze are my favorite plays from EG. Cerq has gone back to being inconsistent, but at what should be slightly lower ownership he’s also a strong GPP play.
On the ex-Winstrike side, El1an is the clear top fragger. Behind him is a bit of a jumbled mess, Lack1 would probably be my number 2 but realistically any of the 4 could be the 2nd fragger any given day. Going to the lower owned players (Nickelback, Krad) is a nice way to differentiate in GPPs particularly in 3/3 builds.
I’m going to have a pretty narrow captain pool on this slate. That’s mostly because El1an is really the only player I’m interested in captaining for ex-Winstrike. Outside of that I have 2 per team: Ropz and Frozen, Brehze and oBo, and Krimz and Brollan. If you really wanted, Jackinho and Cerq are also slightly interesting, but I honestly don’t think any tournaments have enough entries to where you need to go that deep into the bag at captain.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!