We have another Snow Sweet Snow slate for Tuesday, unfortunately another 2 gamer as DK has again decided to cut off the first 2 games of the day since they start too early. This slate is fairly interesting though, as we have two “Tier 1” teams on the slate in EG and Fnatic. I put that in quotes because neither team has really looked like a T1 team lately. Lock is 8:45 am EDT again and the games are:
EG (60% implied win probability) vs Dignitas
Fnatic (61%) vs Wisla Krakow
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
None of these teams sub, and no super recent roster changes for any of them either. For some reason, DK keep putting Flusha onto slates. He’s still not on Fnatic, don’t play him.
I’m familiar enough with these teams that I’m comfortable to write my normal article. I expect that EG and to a lesser extent Fnatic will carry massive ownership on this slate. After all, they’re the clearly superior T1 teams…right?
I wouldn’t be so sure. Dignitas have looked much better than before since they added Lekro, and Wisla Krakow are a solid team themselves. We’ve seen EG lose to Endpoint recently (granted, it was a meaningless game), and Brollan, Krimz, and JW just lost to Young Ninjas (that NiP’s Junior team) while playing with a couple of random players.
Long story short, underdogs are going to be underowned again. Both underdogs are very live, based the Vegas odds at least one underdog will win almost 37% of the time. Both will win almost 16% of the time. I can virtually guarantee you that Dig and WK will be stacked together in far less than 16% of lineups.
As for the actual players, pricing looks a bit better than Monday, you at least can’t fit the top 3 players from both favorites in a lineup with ease, which is nice. Hallzerk looks a bit too cheap for Dig, but I really don’t see anything egregious in the pricing. To me this slate comes down to less about individual plays and more about roster construction. I’m going to build primarily 3/2/1’s (3 from 1 game, 2/1 from the other) like I always do on 2 game slates. I’ll almost certainly be above the field on both underdogs including some lineups with both underdog’s as the primary stacks.
I will say people who build solely based on projections will likely get very little of JW and Golden, because their recent stats are so bad that even the boost in win probability won’t up their projections enough. They’re interesting in GPP’s, as both have put up big numbers against lower competition in the past. JW did tweet that he was no longer going to be main AWP, but it was on March 31st and sort of read as an April fools joke to me. Jackinho has always been an AWP before coming to Fnatic, so it’s worth keeping an eye on. If this is true it would be a big boost for Jackinho.
This is one of the flatter slates in terms of fantasy output we’ve had in a while. Brehze stands out above the crowd a bit, and I expect him to come in with the top captain ownership. He’s still a fine play, as are Krimz, Brollan, Cerq, and oBo.
From the underdogs, there’s no need to get overly cute with your captain plays. I like Lekro and Forest from Dig, and Hades from WK.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!