With T1 CS:GO off until Thursday, we’ll get some Snow Sweet Snow slates for the early part of the week. Mouz, EG, and Fnatic are all actually playing in Snow Sweet Snow, but they won’t be on the slate until Tuesday since they get a bye into the playoffs. Lock is at 8:45 am EDT, and the games are:
Skade (63% implied win probability) vs Anonymo
Dignitas (66%) vs Tricked
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
None of these teams sub, and no super recent roster changes for any of them either.
Since it’s a T3 slate and I don’t know the teams as well I’m just going to share stats and then talk general strategy a bit. Next to every team name will be the win percentages in the format of [3 month map win %, 1 month map win %]. I include this because it’s useful to contextualize the stats. For example, when Fnatic play tomorrow their stats are going to look bad because they’ve been getting crushed by T1 competition, but if their implied odds are a lot higher than their recent win percentage, it seems likely they’ll outperform their raw numbers.
Dignitas [53%, 63%]
In CSGO we almost always see underdogs go underowned. This is compounded on T3 slates when people trust Vegas odds/projections that rely heavily on Vegas more because they are less familiar with the players. Plus, the Vegas odds in these games frequently aren’t as sharp, although all these teams have played with each other for a long time so nothing jumps out as me as egregious here. Still, both the underdogs will win 1/3 times per Vegas, yet will come in super low owned.
In particular, I expect Anonymo to be super low owned. This is because Shipz is far too cheap. There’s a pretty big gap between his fp/r stats, both over 3 months and 1 month, and anyone else on the slate. And he’s only $7.4k I expect him to pull a ton of ownership towards Skade. In GPP’s this makes me like Anonymo a lot. I run mostly 3/2/1 on 2 game slates, I don’t force 3/2/1 but 3/3’s rarely happen organically when I build, so a 2 Anonymo + Shipz is also a fine way to take advantage of his mispricing.
Dignitas will also likely have a dominant share of ownership as compared to Tricked, so I again like the underdog.
Per their odds both underdogs will win ~12% of the time, but Anonymo/Tricked lineups will likely come in well under that. I’ll definitely have a few of those lineups in my build.
Good luck on Monday!