After a wild slate Saturday, where we saw VP rise from the dead on map 3 against, clawing back from a 15-3 deficit to force OT and eventually win, we have an Easter Sunday 2 gamer. Lock is again at 9:30 am EDT, and the games are:
G2 (55% implied win probability) vs Furia
VP (57% implied win probability) vs Complexity
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No roster changes and virtually no sub risk. Honda is technically on Furia but he hasn’t played since Junior joined the team in Europe.
I think the odds are a little bit off in both of these series. G2 won 3/4 series against Furia in 2020. Of course, both have since replaced their AWP, but I still think G2 should be more like 60-65% favorites in this spot. They just beat Liquid, who have looked like the best NA/SA team for a while now, and seem to be getting more comfortable by the day without KennyS.
Meanwhile, I think the VP/Col game should be a coinflip. I’m not reading a ton into struggling against Ence, I just think this Complexity squad is legit. With Poizon back in the fold they are in my opinion a top 5 team in the world, especially with how bad Vitality and Navi have looked.
What this means for the DFS slate is that I like G2 and Col best. Everyone is viable since it’s a 2 game slate, but I’ll be over the field on those teams. Col are fairly straightforward, BlameF, Poizon, and K0nfig are the top options with jks a better salary saver than Rush. G2 are a tiny bit more tricky. Looking at the 3 month stats, it would appear the options go Niko > Hunter > Jackz > Nexa > Amanek. However, there’s a few things we have to consider. First is Jackz. In his time away from G2 he was playing for some T5 teams, and putting up huge numbers. His numbers are back to their bad state since returning to G2. Next is Niko/Hunter. KennyS leaving has really unlocked Hunter for whatever reason, he’s been dominant since then, clearly the best DFS player on the team. Meanwhile, AWPing has seemed to have locked Niko up a bit. He’s definitely getting more comfortable, but his FP/r have taken a hit lately. Lastly, Nexa and Amanek are just about tied for 3rd in FP/r over the past month, which makes Amanek in particular an intriguing DFS play as he’s taken over the AWP more and more. It definitely introduces a bit of potential for noise in the numbers, but with KennyS leaving appearing to have resulted in pretty sweeping changes to how the team plays, I’m personally only looking at G2’s 1 month numbers for the time being.
From VP, don’t be scared off by Yekindar’s bad day. He’s unlikely to do that twice in a row, so if you hand build don’t be scared to use him on this slate. If you run an optimizer, his stats didn’t really take a hit just because of Saturday so you’ll still get the same amount as you would have. Jame is the clear 1B option, while Buster is a clearly distant 3rd. Yet he is still a pretty big gap above Qikert and 4th and Sanji at 5th.
Junior definitely looked a bit more comfortable in Furia’s win on Friday. However, his 3 month and 1 month numbers are still super low, so he’s not an auto lock for me even though he’s only $4.8k. He just doesn’t get involved in enough action to put up big DFS numbers right now. I’d rather play Vini at $5.6k.
BlameF is my favorite captain play on the slate. He always has massive potential, and his ownership shouldn’t be equally massive given that Col are technically underdogs. I already mentioned I don’t really think they are, so I like him a lot at captain. Poizon and K0nfig are also strong captain options that should have very low ownership.
On the other side of that matchup, both Yekindar and Jame are fine captains. They have as much upside as anyone on the slate.
From G2, I prefer Hunter at captain over Niko, but both are usable. Hunter has flashed some serious upside lately, although maybe not quite as much as BlameF or Yekindar.
I don’t really love any captains from Furia, but I suppose Kscerato and Yuurih are technically in play. If you 3 stack Furia I think it’s perfectly reasonable to play one of them at captain. Even Vini could be interesting as a way to build a super differentiated lineup.
That’s it for me, good luck on Sunday!