We have another 2 game slate from ESL Pro League on Saturday. Lock is again at 9:30 am EST, and the games are:
VP (75% implied win probability) vs Ence
Navi (66% implied win probability) vs Complexity
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No roster changes and only Navi has a 6 man roster. Unfortunately, Navi has actually increased how often they sub, as we now see b1t on 3 maps. He now subs in for Flamie on Mirage, Overpass, and Inferno. To make matters worse, this is the late game, we won’t know the maps before lock. Col is also a team that really picks their maps with the specific opponent in mind. Picks could go anywhere but I’d expect Navi to pick a Flamie map (Dust 2, although I actually think Col will mostly likely ban that, Nuke, or Train) and Col to pick a B1t map (Mirage or Inferno). Both players are totally unplayable for me, which is unfortunately especially on a 2 game slate.
The “optimal” build on this slate is very straightforward. 3 VP + S1mple + whoever else you can fit, likely including either Poizon or K0nfig (BlameF if you can get to him). For cash and single entry, I think that build is fine. For GPP’s, I’m going to try to mix it up.
One way to mix it up is play Ence. They are almost definitely going to come in underowned based on their Vegas odds, which say they’ll win in this matchup about 1/4 times. If you don’t want to full on stack Ence, even an Ence one-off should be fairly low owned. Spinx has been their best player of late, and is fairly cheap at only $6.6k. I do not like Dycha very much as a play. He’s super aggressive, and scores a lot of points against bad competition as he’s able to put up a lot of big rounds. Against top tier competition those rounds end in 1 or 0 kills much more often. He’s looked abysmal so far in ESL even though Ence have been surprisingly good.
On the VP side, pricing looks about right. All 5 guys are squarely in play, with Yekindar and Jame the clear top options, Buster the clear 3rd, and Qikert and Sanji pretty close at 4th/5th. I imagine Buster will come in fairly low owned as he’s priced quite a bit higher than Yekindar and Jame, so he could be an interesting way to differentiate.
In the Navi/Col game, Col are priced down a good amount. Given the odds, the pricing is probably about right, but boy do BlameF, Poizon, and K0nfig look enticing at those prices. Of course, as I already mentioned everyone is going to be looking at them as a way to fit VP + S1mple. Getting different in this game is tough. One way will actually probably be to stack 3 Navi. Electronic, Perfecto, and Boombl4 are all priced right next to their Col counterparts, and the Col players all have much better fantasy stats. However, if Navi come out and dominate they can easily outscore Col.
Another way to differentiate here is to not play S1mple. I’m very hesitant to do this in Navi stacks, particularly now that they only have 4 playable players including S1mple, but a 2 Col + Electronic is definitely a good GPP build. Rush and jks will also likely come in very low owned. Both are dirt cheap and could put up a serviceable enough game for their price.
S1mple is of course the top raw points play on the slate. I imagine the relatively tight pricing will keep his ownership at a reasonable level, but it of course will still be high. One thing you can do to play him and be unique is stack S1mple with 2 Col players. S1mple and Zywoo are just about the only guys in the world I’d recommend doing that with, but it can definitely work. You’re looking for a scenario where S1mple carries Navi in a 3 map loss (or very close win), which is not all the farfetched.
As for pivots off of S1mple who can outscore him even when he’s on, it’s a short list. From VP it’s Yekindar and maybe Jame. I like each of them at captain on this slate.
For Col, if you play them at captain you’re at least slightly already banking on S1mple having a down game. BlameF, Poizon, and K0nfig are all in play. I particularly like Poizon, as he’s been excellent since returning from injury, particularly lately.
In Ence stack lineups, Spinx and Allu make for interesting captain options. Spinx in particular has shown exceptional upside, and if Ence wins he’s likely to have a big game.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!