DK has thankfully decided to give us a 4 game Flashpoint Qualifier slate instead of a 2 game IEM slate. Why they only decided to use 4 of the 6 Flashpoint games? I don’t know, I’m just glad it’s not a 2 game slate. Anyways, all 4 games start simultaneously at 12 pm EDT (noon), and they are:
Complexity (80% implied win probability) vs Anonymo
Dignitas (65%) vs AGO Rogue
SKADE (68%) vs Endpoint
Mouz (53%) vs HAVU
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Mezii has replaced robiin for Endpoint since we last saw them. Thomas has stayed on as the permanent replacement for FlameZ. No one else has made any super recent moves, and no one on the slate subs (AGO Rogue does technically have 6 players but they have yet to play their 6th man). The player pool is correct.
DK has done a pretty solid job of pricing up the favorites on this slate (and pricing up both teams in the Mouz/HAVU game), except for Dignitas. Forest, Hallzerk, and Heap are all underpriced, and will likely have inflated ownership. This makes me like AGO quite a bit in GPP’s, as this is definitely a matchup they can win, and they should have very low ownership seeing as they are just as expensive as Dig.
The other chalk team will likely be Col. They’re chalk for a good reason, they’re easily the biggest favorites on the slate. They are expensive though, as BlameF and K0nfig are 2 of the 3 most expensive players on the slate. K0nfig has been on fire lately, he’s averaging the most FP/r over the past month on the entire slate, so don’t overlook him at his expensive salary, as many likely will. On the flip side, Poizon has been struggling lately, as he comes in barely ahead of Dexter in FP/r over the past month. He’s not exactly cheap at $8.4k, but he’s a lot cheaper than Blame or K0nfig, so he may look enticing. Now of course he could easily have a breakout game against an inferior opponent, but buyer beware.
To fit all the expensive players, especially if I’m trying to avoid using too much Dignitas, is going to take some salary savings. My favorite spot for that is Endpoint. Sure, they’re decently large underdogs, but they’re priced like they don’t have a shot at all. I talk a lot here about players being over-projected when they swap teams, but I think opposite is happening here with Mezii (at least price wise). He’s only played 5 maps for Endpoint, and but Mezii is 4th on the slate in FP/r over the past month. Endpoint is 2-3 in those maps too, so it’s not like he’s just picked up points in easy wins. He’s by far my favorite salary saver at only $5.6k. You can also pair him with Surreal, who himself is only $4.6k. Those two allow you to pay up for some studs elsewhere.
On the SKADE side of that matchup, I like Dennyslaw a lot. He and Shipz have pretty similar FP/r numbers, yet Denny comes at a $1.2k discount.
It looks like Mouz have started to turn a corner with Dexter in the team. Dexter himself looks a lot more comfortable, as he’s actually been playing pretty well lately. Ropz is a strong play, and costs a bit less than the other top players on the slate, and Frozen comes at a discount to a bunch of the other number 2 fraggers. I do think Mouz is being a little undervalued by Vegas.
Meanwhile, HAVU are a team I can’t make heads or tails of from watching them. I don’t think they’ve looked good at all lately, but they keep pulling out wins. We saw what can happen when they play top teams during Funspark, as the got beat handedly by both Col and Big. I sort of expect the same here against Mouz. I think this line should be more like 60/40 or even 65/35 than the 53/47 that it is. If I do play any HAVU, it’ll probably be Zoree, as he’s a bit underpriced.
Captain on this slate is tough, as there’s a lot of good high end options. Because of that, I almost like playing a mid-range or value captain better, and fitting more of the studs in the flex. I like Forest, Heap, Mezii, and Fiku quite a bit.
If I go high end, Ropz and K0nfig are my favorites of the bunch, but really anyone priced over 8k or so is capable of putting up the top score on this slate.
Good luck on Wednesday!