We have another nice 4 game slate on Tuesday. Lock is at 7:30 am EDT again and the games are:
Big (63% implied win probability) vs FPX
G2 (56%) vs Mouz
Furia (53%) vs Faze
OG (66%) vs Movistar Riders
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No subs, no players wrong in the DK pool. Reminder if you missed it yesterday that Steel and Alex of Movistar Riders are NOT the same players as the ones who played for Chaos and Cloud 9.
OG’s pricing looks better than Monday, Mantuu and FlameZ basically switched, but I still expect them to be pretty chalky. I’ve talked about this a bunch of times when stars from lower tier teams move up to top tier teams, but FlameZ stats are somewhat inflating his projections for OG. Now, he is a good player, he is definitely capable of having a big game in this spot, but his ownership will likely be way too high. Adding to the chalk, AleksiB’s price actually went down $200 after his big performance on Monday. He’s been playing well of late, I have him as the best value on the entire slate.
Now, I do think this Vegas line is somewhat disrespecting Movistar Riders. They dismantled both Ence and Furia on Monday, and are a legit team. They’re also priced like massive underdogs in this spot, when even according to the actual Vegas line they should win 1/3 times this matchup is played. Smooya burned people on Monday (and then proceeded to dominate against Furia off-slate), but at $7.4k he has top score on the slate upside. The rest of the team is also too cheap. I like Shokz a lot, as while he is technically their 4th fragger, his fp/r are just barely behind 2nd and 3rd on the team. He’s only $4.8k.
I think everyone in the other games is actually priced pretty well, which is unfortunate since it means all my favorite plays come from opposite sides of the same game (I will not be playing OG and Movistar in the same lineup at all). Pricing is very sharp, as Hunter is priced over Niko, and Xantares is priced way up. Both players have been playing very well lately (Hunter for the whole time since KennyS left and Xantares really just over the past month), but their $9.0k+ prices reflect that. Ropz is always a great play, and he’s less expensive than the other top plays even though he averages the highest fp/r on the slate. Mouz have only played 9 maps over the past month, but they are 8-1 on them, maybe they’ve turned a corner with Dexter as IGL?
At captain I like one of two options. Either go cheap with AleksiB, Smooya (who is more mid-range), or even Shokz, or pay all the way up. There aren’t any other cheap captains that you can really rely on.
My favorite pay-up captains are (no particular order):
I expect FlameZ to be fairly popular, but I’ll be off of him for the same logic as above. Niko (from G2) may be worth a look, as he’s recently been AWPing less, which is good for him for DFS. We’ve seen a couple big games from him lately.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!