Finally we have a slate bigger than 2 games. We have a 4 game slate on Monday, from the IEM EU qualifiers. It’s a mix of T1 and T2 teams, but there’s only 1 game with super lopsided odds, so it should be a good slate. Lock is at 7:30 EDT and the games are:

Ence (56% implied win probability) vs Movistar Riders

OG (87%) vs Trident

Mouz (66%) vs K23

Skade (55%) vs FPX

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

We have a few teams that we haven’t seen on a ton of slates playing Monday. The good news is that no teams appear to sub currently, and the DK player pool is correct. I say “appear” because until recently K23 had a 6 man roster, with Kade0 being the man off the bench. However, it appears he has left to join a new team. I couldn’t find any actual news (or anything on Twitter) confirming the change was permanent, but he played for that new team against K23 a couple weeks ago so I’m pretty confident they just have a 5 man roster now.

This isn’t exactly a roster change, but I did want to make note that alex and Steel for Movistar Riders are NOT the same Alex from C9 (who is now teamless) or Steel from Chaos (who now plays CSGO). They are different players.

The only other roster change (aside from the OG changes, which were recent but we’ve already seen them on slates with FlameZ) is Emi coming back to FPX. Evidently negotiations fell apart again with ChrisJ to be IGL, so they brought back Emi, who had previously played with the team when they were Godsent at the end of 2020. I don’t expect a huge difference in FPX overall performance going from Sunny to Emi.

Slate Analysis

Before I jump into the slate itself, I wanted to touch on strategy for a minute since it’s been so long since we’ve had any 4 game slates. All of this is geared towards large (for CSGO) field GPPs. 3/2/1 lineup builds are still king, as they win tournaments at a significantly higher rate than they are used. I also almost never play opponents in the same lineup. Exceptions to that would be if there was a S1mple or Zywoo on the slate (Ropz is almost there for me, but I don’t plan to play him with K23) who can still dominate when their team loses, or if there’s a blatant mispricing where a player is way too cheap. There are no such mispricings on this slate.

As for the slate, I expect OG and to a lesser extent Mouz to be the chalk. Mantuu, niko, and AleksiB are all underpriced given that they are huge favorites. This could actually lead to Valde and/or FlameZ coming in a bit lower owned than we may otherwise expect, as I expect the popular build will be cheap OG plus expensive (Ropz and Frozen) Mouz.

One build I like is K23 paired with expensive OG players. Mouz has really struggled since losing Karrigan, and have lost to a couple of T2 teams already. Even in the 2-0 wins over SKADE and Ex-Winstrike 3/4 maps went to at least 1 OT, so it’s not like they’re dominating these games. K23 are my favorite GPP play on the slate.

I expect fairly low ownership across the board in the 2 other games. Both are essentially coinflips but the pricing doesn’t really come at a discount to OG or Mouz. Guys like Dycha, Smooya, and ShipZ all have just as high of upside as the Ropz’ and Valde’s of the world but will likely come in at a fraction of the ownership. I’m going to make it a point to get some exposure to each of them.

I have no interest in Trident outside of maybe one-off Norwi if I really need the savings. The rest of the team is too expensive given their long odds. FPX will likely come in low owned, as all 5 players have pretty bad recent stats. They’re a super balanced team in general, as the 4 players who have been on the team (so not including Emi) all score within .1 fp/r of each other. I’ll likely have a bit of exposure to at least Zehn and Styko since they’re cheap, but I won’t be going out of my way to play anyone on FPX.

Top Captains

I expect Ropz to be the most popular captain on the slate, and while I don’t mind him, I’m likely to come in under the field in GPP’s. I’d rather the guys I mentioned before, Dycha, Smooya, or ShipZ, as each should have low captain ownership with great upside.

The OG value guys will likely have decent ownership themselves, I like both Mantuu and AleksiB for some savings to allow you to jam in some extra studs.

However, I like norbert even better. I already mentioned I like K23 a lot in GPP’s and Norbert is roughly the same price as Mantuu. Norbert’s recent numbers are outstanding and if K23 pull off the upset he could easily put up the top score on the slate.

I’m not likely to go cheaper than AleksiB at captain, I think there’s enough value on the slate that you don’t have to.

That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!

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