Saturday we have what will be our last 2 game slate from Funspark. It’s been a wild tournament so far, with upsets galore. Just look at these games, forZe and Extra Salt are playing in the winners bracket final. They almost without question would’ve been everyone’s pick for the bottom 2 teams in the tournament before it started. Anyways, lock is at 8:00 am EDT again, and the games are:
Havu (50.5% implied win probability) vs Big
Forze (51.5%) vs Extra Salt
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No roster changes, no subs for any of these teams. Rosters are correct on DK.
There is quite literally no outcome that could surprise me in either of these matchups. Both are effectively coinflips, and these teams are complete wildcards. forZe and Extra Salt have both looked great all tournament, and Havu and Big have switched between looking terrible and very solid.
With the games themselves toss-ups, let’s look to pricing to see where we can gain an advantage on the field. The first spot that jumps out to me is Zoree. He’s been playing out of his mind the last couple games, and he’s somehow only $6.8k. I imagine nearly everyone who stacks Havu is going to include Zoree. However, if you look at the slightly bigger picture, Aerial, Xseven, and slowi all have roughly the same kills/round as Zoree over the past 3 months. Now Zoree has a lot few deaths, but my point is that the upside is there for all 3 of those guys to outfrag him. I like Havu stacks without Zoree a lot in GPPs.
On the other side of that game, Tabsen also jumps out at me, but for the opposite reason. At $9.2k he’s the most expensive player on the slate. Most people, particularly hand builders, will skip right over him down to a much cheaper Syrson and Xantares. Tabsen is a strong GPP play.
In the Extra Salt/forZe game, we have another Zoree situation, this time with Fang. The top 4 for Extra Salt (so excluding JT) are all close in kill share, well to be fair oSee is the clear number 1 and then 2-4 are close. Fang has looked great this event though, so I’d imagine most DFS players will include him in Extra Salt stacks, leaving out either MarkE or Sonic. I like the oSee + Sonic AND MarkE stack, leaving Fang out, for GPP’s.
ForZe are the one team where I don’t really think there’s much to take advantage of in terms of pricing or ownership. They’re pricing looks about right. Maybe Jerry over Kensi as a 3rd in stacks would be the differentiating move, but even then I don’t expect Kensi to have crazy high ownership.
To start with Havu again, Zoree will likely be their highest owned captain. He’s not a bad play by any means, but I’d rather go Aerial at much lower ownership.
From Big, I’d likely go Syrson then Tabsen for my captains. Tabsen should again have very low ownership and as I’ve mentioned every Big slate this tournament, he has the highest kills/round over the past 3 months on the team. The upside is definitely there.
From Extra Salt, oSee is my captain of choice. We’ve only seen flashes of the dominance he displayed in NA so far in Europe, but he could go off for 90+ in any of these matchups. Sonic makes for a nice low owned pivot, as he’s been the 2nd best fragger over 3 months.
On the forZe side, it’s Fl1t or Zorte at captain for me. Both have big upside, and even though I listed them last I actually like them both a lot as forZe have a more narrow kill distribution than the other teams on this slate.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!