We have more Funspark Ulti Thursday, with another 2 game slate on the cards. Lock is at 8:00 am EST again and the games are:
VP (66% implied win probability) vs Havu
Big (56%) vs EG
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
If you missed it the other day, Tarik is out for EG, Michu is in. No other teams have made recent roster changes, none of these teams sub, and the player pool is correct.
Funspark has been the tournament of the underdog, with the exception of Havu. Havu looked like a team that didn’t belong in the same server as Complexity in their opening matchup. Now, a ton can change in CS from one day to the next, but with Havu now riding a 3 loss streak, 2 of which were to T3 (or worse) teams, I’m not a fan of them in a very difficult matchup against VP. Even their win against Big is looking less impressive by the day. I think VP should be more like 75-80% favorites in this spot. Especially since forZe just beat Complexity, making that loss look much less concerning than it may have initially. I normally come in over the field on underdogs, but because I feel the line is off here, I’ll likely end up under the field on Havu. I may not stack them at all, I’ll instead opt for one-offs if I do play them.
On the VP side, everyone except probably Yekindar is a bit too cheap. Jame is especially cheap, and will likely be super popular. I like both he and Yekindar quite a bit, with either Buster or Qikert as a 3rd. Sanji is an OK third but I don’t really think we need the cost savings that badly to go to him here.
Part of the reason I don’t think we need the cost savings of Sanji is because Cerq is insanely cheap. He’s been a bit hit or miss recently, but $5.8k is simply too cheap. EG are technically underdogs here, but I’m not sure they should be. They did look pretty bad in Michu’s debut against Dig, but I’d expect them to quickly improve. In the meantime Big are definitely trending in the wrong direction, and have been for a while. This game is a complete coinflip to me.
Aside from Cerq being too cheap the other thing that stands out to me from this game is Michu likely having too much ownership. He was right up there with oBo and ahead of Cerq in EG’s first game with him on the roster, and I’d expect that to continue. Now to be clear, I’m not saying he’s not a good player, he is, or that he won’t put up a big game, he might, but I do think that he’ll have too much ownership because his recent stats primarily come from T3 CS.
On the Big side, Tabsen is likely to go low owned because he’s so much more expensive than Syrson and Xantares (and more expensive than Brehze). I like him a lot for GPP’s for that very reason. He has the highest kills per round lately on Big (and also deaths per round), the upside is definitely there.
I think Jame will be incredibly popular at captain on this slate, and with good reason. I like him, but I actually like Yekindar even more. The extra money to get to him will likely keep his ownership down a bit, and when he is on his game he can go huge. I think the matchup against Havu is a prime spot for him to do that, as he’s simply better than anyone on Havu.
If I go away from Jame/Yekindar, I’d likely go to the other game. Brehze, Cerq, oBo, Tabsen, Syrson, and Xantares are all decent captain options in this spot. Brehze is my favorite for raw points, but I’m intrigued by Cerq at his bottom barrel price.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!