Sunday marks the final slate from the Blast Premier Spring Showdown. We have a 2 game slate that should be very competitive. Lock is at 9:30 am EDT and the games are:
Spirit (60% implied win probability) vs G2
Gambit (53%) vs Heroic
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No sub risk or roster changes for any of these teams. Player pool is correct.
Gambit are slight favorites over Heroic despite have just lost a Bo5 grand finals. I don’t disagree with the odds, as the game went all 5 maps, and 2 of Heroics wins were in OT. However, Gambit are priced like underdogs. This is going to lead to them being overowned almost definitely. Ax1le in particular is way too cheap and his ownership will be through the roof. I like Heroic a lot for GPP’s on this slate.
Of course, the problem with playing Heroic is that legitimately all 5 guys could top frag any given day, but that won’t stop me from trying to guess which 3 will be best if they win on Sunday.
With Gambit underpriced, I expect most ownership to end up on Spirit, as you can afford to stack Spirit + Gambit fairly easily. I like the G2 side in GPP’s, and I’ll have a lot of Hunter + Niko and then run it back with either Degster or Mir. Amanek is a decent 3rd from G2 if you need salary savings, he’s AWPing a lot now as Niko only AWPs some of the time.
Even though I like Heroic a lot, as I alluded to above they’re tough to captain. In my Heroic lineups I’ll most likely captain either Degster or Mir from Spirit, or Niko or Hunter from G2. Both teams in that game have much tighter kill concentrations than Heroic.
If I play Gambit, Ax1le is way too cheap, and he’ll likely be popular in the flex as well as at captain. If you play him at captain maybe leave some salary on the table as a way to be different from all the other Ax1le captain lineups. Sh1ro and Hobbit both have big upside as well, and Hobbit should be low owned at captain as most people who plays Gambit captain will either go up to Sh1ro or down to Ax1le.
Good luck on Sunday!