We have another 2 game slate on Friday, as the Blast Premier Spring Showdown continues. Lock is at 9:30 am EDT again and the games are:
G2 (52% implied win probability) vs OG
Spirit (69%) vs Dignitas
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No roster changes for these teams since we last saw them (OG of course added FlameZ very recently). No extra players in the player pool who are no longer on the team. No sub risk for any of these teams.
Pricing is a little bit looser than we’ve seen recently. As usual, DK has slightly discounted everyone in the coinflip game (G2/OG). This makes it a bit easier to fit Spirit with whichever side of G2/OG you want. I’d expect that to be the way most people build.
That will most likely leave Dignitas under-owned. They’ve been playing really well lately, their win over Liquid was no fluke. Lekr0 joining the team really seems to have flipped a switch for them. Spirit are certainly a tough opponent, but Dig will almost definitely not have ownership that reflects their odds to win.
Another edge that we can exploit on this slate is FlameZ. I think he’s a good player, but his stats are definitely inflated from his time on Endpoint. He does a lot of entry fragging, and at the highest level big multi-kill rounds are hard to come by for entry fraggers as everyone is so adapt at trading (or just winning the initial aim duel). If you remember way back to when Grim joined Liquid, his ownership was massively inflated for months, and we were able to exploit that many times. I wouldn’t expect quite as big of a drop with FlameZ, but I definitely think he’ll be over-owned.
I also generally think G2 should be bigger favorites. They seem to be gelling as this new lineup without KennyS. Niko is only taking the AWP some of the time, presumably when he feels comfortable on it, and he’s back to looking like his normal self. This is allowing Amanek to AWP more, which him a slightly more attractive play than his numbers may indicate. I also don’t read much into OG’s 2-0 win over Astralis. Astralis are currently playing some terrible (for their standards) CS.
There’s no clear cut “top captain” like there was on Thursday (despite the fact that Zywoo ended up being massively disappointing). Each team has some viable options. I’d expect mir and degster to be among the most popular, they’re the 2 stars on the biggest favorite. They’re both fine if you play Spirit, just recognize you’ll need to find somewhere to differentiate.
Niko and Hunter will likely be popular as well. Again, I like both as I feel G2 should be real favorites instead of in a coinflip. On the other side, Mantuu’s price has been depressed by the arrival of FlameZ as DK apparently doesn’t like pricing players on the same team at the same price, so he’ll likely draw some ownership at captain. He and Valde are both solid in OG lineups. Like I said previously, I think FlameZ will be over-owned, and that extends to captain, so I’ll be staying away myself.
Lastly, the only true place where you should be able to get “low” ownership on a top fragger captain is Dig. The problem is they’ve turned into a team where 4 different players could top frag. I still lean Lekr0 as my top choice, but he, Hunter, Heap, and Hallzerk have all flashed upside. I’m okay with any of them at captain.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!