We’re back Wednesday with another 3 game slate and if I’m not mistaken 2 teams that have never been on a DK slate before. Lock is at 6:30 am EST again and the games are:
Spirit (81% implied win probability) vs Extra Salt
Gambit (97%) vs NASR
Furia (77%) vs MiBR
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Starting with the teams we’ve never seen before, Extra Salt are the core of the old Cloud 9 team, oSee, JT, and Sonic are all still on the team, plus a couple more familiar names in MarkE and Fang. They’ve been dominating what’s left of the NA scene before now making the transition to Europe.
While Extra Salt are familiar, NASR definitely aren’t. I’ll be honest I have never seen any of their players play. From what I can tell, they’ve played in mostly Asian tournaments prior to this? They appear to be based in the Middle East. I’m not expecting a ton from them.
Since we last saw MiBR, they’ve brought in Exit. Danoco is technically still on the team, but per their Twitter he’ll be on the bench for at least this series. There shouldn’t be any sub risk here.
Same goes for Furia. Honda is still on the team but hasn’t played in ages. Furia has been playing well so I don’t expect them to make any changes.
Unlike yesterday’s slate, where all 2 underdogs won and Endpoint played G2 fairly competitively, I’m not expecting that on Wednesday’s slate. Be very careful with both Extra Salt and NASR. They have strong numbers (NASR’s are a small sample size of recent games), but against much weaker competition than they’ll be facing Wednesday. I’m pretty unlikely to play anyone from NASR, if I do it will just be one-offs. Even Extra Salt are tough to see being super competitive, the NA scene is truly a shell of it’s former self. All the best teams are in Europe and all the best players not on those teams pretty much switched to Valorant. Spirit is a massive step up in competition, and I’d be surprised if it went well.
That leaves just MiBR. I do like Exit, and I think this should be an overall upgrade for the team. They could actually give Furia a run for their money here, although Furia have looked very strong lately. Even if they lose, MiBR have some explosive players who could reach value in a close loss. As a team they have far and away the most aces over the past 3 months, even though there are teams that have played more rounds.
The good news that keeps this slate from being entirely boring is that the favorites are priced up. I expect most of the ownership to flow to Sh1ro, Axile, Mir (who is underpriced) and Degster, leaving Hobbit and the Furia top fraggers relatively underowned. I like Kscerato and Yuurih a lot in GPPs. Their stats aren’t as good as the players I mentioned before, but it’s not that huge of a gap and they could easily outscore their counterparts.
I do still think Junior is something of a trap play. He may hit 8-10x value, but he’s simply not involved enough to put up huge fantasy numbers. He’s the one who stays back in spawn to throw smokes and gets to the fight either after arT and co have killed everyone or after arT and co are all dead. If he becomes more active then he’ll be an enticing option, but for now I’d rather spend the extra money for Vini.
Outside of Furia, there’s really not much value among the favorites. Even Nafany is all the way up at $7.8k. It’s a tough day to build. Chopper looks decent at $6k, but beware of his ownership getting inflated since he’s the cheapest player between Gambit and Spirit.
With how tight pricing is, I’d imagine most people aren’t going to be able to get all the way up to Sh1ro, Axile, or even Degster. This makes them attractive options and I’ll try my best to get to some of each.
Mir will likely be super popular since for some reason he’s more than $1k (flex) cheaper than his peers. I’ll definitely have some, but I’ll try to avoid going overboard on the chalk. Both Hobbit and Yuurih make for nice pivots in the same price range.
I also don’t mind dropping down to arT or even Vini. Both offer even more savings than Mir and will help you fit as many studs as possible.
If you end up stacking Extra Salt, Osee has been playing out of his mind in NA. He actually has the highest FP/r over the past 3 months on the slate, so if they pull off the upset he’s likely to pop off.
MiBR are tough to pick a captain from, they’re super balanced, but Chelo has been the best player lately. He, boltz, and shz are all worth a look at captain in MiBR lineups.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!