Boy does it feel good to see a 3 game slate. After seemingly endless 2 game slates, DK has finally given us a 3 gamer as Blast kicks off Tuesday. Lock is early, 6:30 am EST, let’s make sure we fill those tournaments up so DK keep giving us the early games. The games are:
Astralis (72% implied win probability) vs OG
G2 (75%) vs Endpoint
Liquid (72%) vs Dignitas
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Endpoint and OG have both made recent roster changes. OG benched Issa and brought in FlameZ. Tuesday will be FlameZ debut with the team. Of course, since FlameZ had been playing for Endpoint, they obviously need to replace him. It seems that at least for now they’ll be bringing back Thomas. Thomas has clearly maintained a good relationship with the team as he’s been a standin fairly regularly for them as FlameZ has had some health and internet issues in the past few months. He’s very familiar with this team and the players in it.
Astralis still technically has Bubzkji on the roster, but he hasn’t subbed in for nearly 3 months. There should be no sub risk here.
Draftkings seems to have gone the ultra-safe route and decided to include literally anyone who has played for any of these teams even somewhat recently. I already mentioned Bubz, he’s unplayable. KennyS, Nbk, and Issaa are all also on the slate. None of them are playing, don’t play them.
Before I jump in to actual strategy, I wanted to quickly talk about FlameZ. His numbers obviously look really good and I think he is a good player, but we don’t know exactly what role he’s going to be in for OG. I’d be pretty surprised if he puts up numbers that are close to as good as his Endpoint numbers were. Definitely take his projections with a grain of salt.
Anyways, on to the actual slate where DK has really priced guys on favorites up the last couple days. We’re going to be left with a choice to play bottom fraggers on favorites or top fraggers on underdogs. Typically I land much heavier towards the top fraggers on underdogs side of this equation. The field usually lands on the side of bottom fraggers on favorites. On this slate, I’ll probably still land above the field on underdogs, but closer than I normally am. I don’t particularly love any of the underdogs.
I expect that OG will be the most popular of the underdogs. People seem to think that Astralis are “dust”, which I don’t think is accurate. All of their recent losses, with the exception of EG, are to top 10 teams in the world. They should still outclass this OG team. I think that perception plus FlameZ having an elevated projection are going to drive people to OG. I’ll have some because they’re cheap, but I don’t love OG on Tuesday
At the same time, I also don’t love Endpoint. With FlameZ, they had been playing some good CS and looked competitive during ESL Pro League. Unfortunately, with FlameZ now gone, they’re back to their old roster, which saw them unable to ever cross that hump into being a T1 team. Again, they’re cheap, particularly Surreal, so I’ll have some, but I again don’t love them.
The team underdog I’m probably most interested in is Dignitas. They’re playing well since Lekro joined, and I’m still not that sold on this Liquid team actually being good. I like Hallzerk a lot for his price, and Heap is also very cheap. Lekro and Forest are good stacking partners.
From the favorites, I like Amanek and Nexa as cheap players from G2. I should also point out, that since Jackz has come back, he’s been the bottom FP/r player, don’t be fooled by his stats from T3 CS. Xyp and Grim are both OK value options, I don’t love either but I’ll probably have some of each. Grim has higher upside while Xyp is more reliable. Stewie2k is also in that “value” range at $6.8k. His FP/r has been trending upwards since Fallen took over as IGL, freeing Stewie up to focus on fragging only.
Device and Elige stand head and shoulders above the field on this slate. They are 1-2 on the slate in FP/r over both the past 3 months and past month, and by a decent margin. If you can make them fit, they’re the top captain plays on the slate.
Hunter has really elevated his play since KennyS left, he’s my favorite captain from OG.
If you’re stacking an underdog, the captains I like are Valde or Mantuu, Thomas or Crucial, and Lekro, Forest, or Hallzerk.
I don’t mind going value cpt from a favorite either. Amanek, Grim, and Xyp would be my captains of choice if looking to save. Dupreeh and Naf are my favorite from the mid range.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!