Draftkings is reaching deep this CS:GO slate on Monday. Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they’re running a slate instead of not running one, and there aren’t better games they could’ve used, but yikes. We have a 2 game slate from Spring Sweet Spring, which if you didn’t already guess is the successor to “Snow Sweet Snow”. Lock is at 8:45 am EST, there are earlier games not on the slate so that could technically be adjusted, but they haven’t been pushing it back at all previously, and the games are:
Nordavind (97% implied win probability) vs Xset
Lemondogs (51%) vs EC Brugge
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
All 4 of these teams have surprisingly stable rosters, with none having made any roster changes recently. Of course, some have barely played, but when they have played it’s been the same 5.
I’m not going to post the FP/r numbers here because I don’t think they’re super useful for either Xset or Lemondogs. Xset hasn’t played in the last 3 months, and has only 281 rounds played over the past 6 months. Meanwhile, Lemondogs have played 187 rounds over the past 3 months. For reference, active teams typically have over 1,000 rounds played in the last 3 months, at the very least 700 or so.
Fortunately, pricing is decently tight on this slate. Fitting the 3 best players on Nordavind will definitely be a challenge. I except Supra and Mirbit to end up with a ton of ownership because of that. Anything you can do to get away from using them will be unique on this slate. I don’t even mind a 3 Nordavind + Xset one off because of how cheap Xset are.
I doubt it will drive much ownership, but the Twist on Lemondogs is in fact the same Twist who previously on NiP. He has not been all that great yet for Lemondogs, so I wouldn’t recommend locking him in just because he’s a “T1” player.
I plan on being a bit heavier on the EC Brugge side of that game. Even though the odds are almost identical, Lemondogs being ever so slight favorites will likely tilt ownership. Plus, ECB have played together as a team for way longer even if they may not be quite as talented players.
When teams are massive favorites, I tend to like playing their aggressive players more. I don’t have any data that backs it up, but the logic is that against competition that they outskill, they’ll win more of their opening duels and/or not be traded as well, leading to more multi-kill rounds. For Nordavind that’s HS. I expect him to go slightly overlooked in general, as he’s not a “value” at $8.6k (flex price), but he also doesn’t have as good of stats as Tenzki or mertz. I like him a lot in both the flex and at captain. Mertz is also an aggressive AWPer, he gets a ton of opening kills, I like him here too although he is pricey. All 5 players from Nordavind are realistically in play at captain.
For the Lemondogs/ECB game, RitchiEE is my favorite captain. He has FP/r over the past 3 months on the slate, even better than Mertz (and ECB has played over 1000 rounds in the past 3 months). Of course, he is a ever so slight underdog while Mertz is a massive favorite, but it’s still worth noting.
Hemzk9 from Lemondogs is interesting at captain, and if you think Twist maybe just off to a bad start but his talent will show through he’s a reasonable price.
Best of luck navigating this fairly wild slate.