We up to the semi-finals of ESL Pro League on Saturday. There are definitely a couple surprises in the Top 4. I don’t think many people thought Furia or NiP would be here, and even Heroic is a bit surprising given that they just made roster changes. The slate locks at 9:30 am EDT again Saturday, and the games are:

Gambit (72% implied win probability) vs NiP

Heroic (54%) vs Furia

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

Furia technically has a 6 man roster, but they never sub, no sub risk on this slate. Honda is the sub, DK decided to randomly put him on this slate, don’t play him.

Slate Analysis

What is it going to take for NiP to get a little respect? I’m not saying they’re as good as Gambit, I think I’ve been pretty clear I think Gambit is the best team in the world right now, but 72/28 is a bridge too far. This should be more like 65/35 or 60/40, which may not seem like that much, but it would be significant for ownership.

With both Furia and Heroic having solid players for cheap, I don’t expect many players to use NiP for value. A build with a Nawwk or Plopski one-off and 3 expensive players from the Heroic/Furia game will likely be pretty unique, and I like a lot for GPPs.

Top Captains

Gambit has a legitimate 3 headed monster with Sh1ro, Axile, and Hobbit. Hobbit is always the lowest owned of the 3 and on this slate he’s also the cheapest, I like him at captain here. The other 2 are both good if you can afford it.

The other 3 teams are a nightmare to pick captains from. Heroic and Furia legitimately have 5 players each who could put up the best fantasy score, and NiP have 4. If I had to pick I’d put Cadian, Kscerato, and Nawwk (mostly for savings) slightly ahead, but it’s really close. I’d be fine with any of the 14 players (everyone except ztr) from these 3 teams.

Good luck Saturday!

 

 

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