Welcome back! We have another 3 game slate on Tuesday, with another early, 6 am EST start. It’s the same 6 teams as Monday, just in different matchups, as the first group of ESL Pro League continues on. The games are:
FunPlus Phoenix (74% implied win probability) vs Renegades
Complexity (64%) vs OG
Big (55%) vs Heroic
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No changes since yesterday, all of the rosters are correct on DK for Tuesday.
Much like yesterday, there are a lot of potential pitfalls as there are quite a few small sample sizes we’re working with here. Projections won’t quite capture all of the changes quite yet. The biggest pitfalls in my opinion are:
- Renegades in general, Alistair specifically: When Alistair played for Order, he was the star AWPer. The whole team revolved around him. Now, he’s just another rifler for Renegades, and they already have a star Rifler in INS. It is worth noting that Alistair started AWPing more on Train (although they got crushed) Monday, but until (if) he takes over as full time AWP his numbers likely won’t be great. As for the rest of the team, their numbers are boosted from beating up on less competition in Australia. The only one with halfway decent fp/r numbers since getting to Europe is INS, but he’s still priced super expensively. I expect Renegades to be fairly popular as far as underdogs go in this spot, but I’ll only have a little bit myself.
- Refrezh: Now, at only $4.4k it’s hard for Refrezh to totally disappoint, but people expecting his Mad Lions numbers (40% of the field on Monday) are likely to be left wanting. His current role for Mad Lions is not conducive to DFS production. To put it into context, he’s now played 6 maps for Heroic. Heroic are 6-0 on those maps. Refrezh is averaging .30 fp/r over those maps. That would be the 3rd worst fp/r over the past 3 months on the slate, ahead of only Malta and Sunny, and Sunny has only played 1 match in that time frame. I’m not saying don’t use him at all, I’ll probably have him in a couple lineups, but don’t think that Refrezh is a free square in this spot.
In addition to the pitfalls, there are a couple places we should be able to take advantage. I think the cat is out of the bag with Col, as their ownership was sky high Monday and likely will be again Tuesday, but there are still a couple spots we can look to.
- Maden, FPX in general: Maden has been FPX’s top fp/r producer over the past month and barely behind Zehn and Farlig over the past 3 months. Yet he comes at a decent discount, only $7.2k. FPX as a whole are likely to come in a bit underowned given their implied odds, as the masses will flock to Col even though FPX are bigger favorites. I like them quite a bit on this slate. Even Sunny down at 5.0k should put up a respectable point per dollar score if they win (especially if they sweep).
- Heroic not named Refrezh: The Heroic vs Big series is deadlocked at 8 maps a piece dating back to the beginning of 2020. I believe Heroic’s roster changes are at least a slight upgrade for them. I’d handicap this game at basically a coinflip, maybe 52-48 in Heroic’s favor. Vegas however, disagrees, installing Big as slight favorites. This will likely tilt ownership towards them, and create a nice opportunity to play Heroic. All 5 members are technically in play given Refrezh’s pricing, but I prefer stacking combinations the other 4 for more upside.
Other miscellaneous things: OG are still too cheap. I don’t think they’re going to beat Col, but even if they keep it close they could put up decent scores. After beating Big on Monday I expect that their ownership ends up roughly where it should be so I don’t think there particular value in playing OG, but I certainly won’t shy away from it.
Big are also a fine play. Tabsen is still underpriced, although interestingly enough it does seem that people have caught on that he’s been performing better than Xantares. Playing Xantares is actually an interesting GPP twist as his ownership will likely be fairly low.
Even though Col aren’t going to be at all sneaky on Tuesday. BlameF is still far and away my top captain on the slate. Some handbuilders might be scared away after his mediocre (by his standards) showing Monday, but I’ll have quite a bit of BlameF. He’s likely to be my highest owned captain by quite a bit. Poizon had a big game Monday, and quietly has excellent numbers since his return. He and K0nfig are nice pivots off of Blame while still staying within Col.
Zehn and Maden are also two of my favorite captains on this slate. Both have huge upside if FPX does beat Renegades. On the Renegades side of that matchup don’t be afraid to use INS at captain if you stack Renegades. If they do win he’s likely to put up a huge score.
I don’t love anyone from the Heroic/Big game at captain. I’ll likely have a little exposure to Tabsen, Syrson, and Cadian, but for the most part both of these teams spread their kills out pretty evenly. I’ll be concentrating on the other 2 games for most of my captain ownership.
Lastly, I’m fine with both Valde and Mantuuu at captain in OG lineups. If they do pull off another upset at least one of those two is likely to have had a big game.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!