We’ve got ourselves a T2 slate on Tuesday. These are some of the better teams that play in the T3 scene which is why I’d call them T2. Lock is at 8am EDT and the games are:
Sprout (69% implied win probability) vs Mad Lions
Dignitas (62%) vs AGO
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Even though this is T2/3 most of these teams have fairly stable rosters. Sprout’s starting lineup has played 83 maps together. I say starting because on March 16th they signed kyuubii. Kyuubii is yet to appear in a match for them, and they’ve had several after signing him. Based on the comments when they signed him I wouldn’t expect him to play anytime soon unless one of the other members has an issue, but he is technically on the team.
Dignitas recently replaced H4rr3 with Lekr0, Lekr0 has been playing with them for about a month now. No subs on for Dig.
AGO also technically have a 6 man roster, with Leman as a sub. He hasn’t played in the last 3 months though, and I wouldn’t expect him to play here either, but again he technically could.
I saved Mad Lions for last because, well, they have a completely new team. They’ve only played 3 matches together, all Bo1’s, with this roster. And oh yeah, they also have 6 players and actually play all 6. So far, it’s been tudson and keen who sub in for each other. Tudson has played on Train (twice) and keen has played on Inferno. I have no idea who will play on any of the other maps or if it will even be tudson or keen who sits. Further complicating things, both Tudson, Woro2k, and jL are all primarily AWPers. jL is definitely not AWPing for Mad Lions (and as we’ll get to his stats show it), but Tudson and Woro2k appear to be splitting AWP duties. TMB also has AWPed on occasion during his career and also has some AWP kills for this team. Basically what I’m saying is it’s a very confusing situation for us to navigate in DFS. Keen isn’t on the slate while Tudson is. I’ve scoured twitter, HLTV, and Reddit but haven’t been able to find anything definitive on who’s playing what maps. Interestingly, Keen tweeted about wanting to be an IGL but clearly that hasn’t mattered for him getting subbed out. I probably wouldn’t play Tusdon as we know there is very real sub risk with him. Everyone else, take your chances I guess?
I’m going to do things a bit differently for this slate. I honestly don’t watch enough of these teams to give well formulated opinions on them, what I’m going to do instead is share everyone’s fantasy stats.
Sprout have a 63% map win percentage over their past 3 months and 60% over the past month
Note that these stats are kind of a nightmare. The stats in the 3 month column are actually 6 month stats, which include time spent in some truly awful leagues for most of these guys, and the one month stats are from a grand total of 3 games, 2 for tudsoN. Woro also has some games in the past month where he was playing for a pub stack and was fairly dominant.
Lekr0’s 3 month stats are the same 17 maps that he’s played in the past month. Dig has a 48% map win percentage over the past 3 months and a 59% map win percentage over the past month since Lekr0 joined.
AGO has a 59% map win percentage over the past 3 month and a 68% map win percentage over the past month.
In general, people tend to stick too heavily to favorites on these lower slates. Dig and AGO are pretty much a coin flip, so that may not be the case in that game, it will almost definitely be the case in Sprout vs Mad Lions. Mad Lions have played 3 total maps as a squad, so this line is a complete and total guess by Vegas.
The Mad Lions players are mostly newcomers, but they are definitely talented. S1mple called Woro his player to watch of 2021, that should tell you all you need to know about him. Unfortuantely, Tudson is unlikely to play the whole series so it’s hard to pair him with Woro. I do like sausol or TMB though. I do not like jL. His 6 month (3 month on the chart) stats look really good because he was an AWP. Now, as a rifler, he has really struggled so far, and I don’t expect that to change any time soon. Mad Lions are definitely a big risk, but they’re my favorite GPP play of the day.
It’s also worth noting that when we last saw Dig (or at least when I last played slates they were on, I’ve taken off some of the other T3’s and I’m not sure if Dig played), Heap was looking like their best player. That seems to have changed since Lekr0 arrived, as he’s immediately taken over the star role. Be cognizant of that if you play Dignitas lineups.
Other than that, I’m just going to try to get as many of the best plays into my lineup. Good luck on Tuesday!