Monday is the last day of Group D, which means all the games will be played simultaneously starting at 1pm EDT. The games are:

Astralis (74% implied win probability) vs Fnatic

VP (62%) vs Liquid

EG (70%) vs Endpoint

None of these games matter for anything but the order the top 3 finish in. Astralis, VP, and Liquid are through into the playoffs, Fnatic, EG, and Endpoint are out.

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

With their playoff spot locked up, this would be the time if there ever was one for Astralis to play Bubzkji. It definitely adds an extra layer of risk to Xyp9x, who is again cheap and after a big day Sunday will likely be chalky again. Bubz could also sub in for Magisk or Dupreeh I suppose, Glaive is safe as IGL and Device is safe as AWP, but it’s most likely that he subs in for Xyp, IF Astralis decide to sub.

Slate Analysis

After I said I didn’t like Xyp9x he of course went out and put up his first series with a +20 or better K-D since February…of 2020. I’m going right back to the fade again though, as his recent stats truly aren’t good, even with the big day Sunday. Plus like I said above I do think there’s a decent chance he gets subbed out with Astralis having nothing to play for and Bubz currently rotting away on the bench. I  prefer Magisk at $6.8k for my Astralis value.

There’s not a ton of value on the favorites outside of Astralis. Cerq is definitely still too cheap, oBo should not be more expensive than him, and I suppose Jame is a bit underpriced. Guys like Stanislaw, Tarik, Sanji, and Qikert are definitely playable on this slate, just recognize that they are fairly low upside plays. I’d try to use at most 1 of them in a lineup.

Liquid will likely see the most ownership of the underdogs, but they really aren’t priced down much. Elige is expensive but a Fallen + Naf stack won’t break the bank. I don’t love it though as Liquid tends to take care of business against the teams they should and then struggle against the better teams, which VP definitely qualify as.

Endpoint remain incredibly low priced. I typically don’t put much stock into motivation narratives, but if there was one time I might buy into one it would be here with EG. They obviously wanted to qualify for the the playoffs and probably felt like they could/should. They started off really well with a win over Astralis, but fast forward a few days and they’ve lost 3 straight and are making an early exit. I could definitely see them coming out flat here. Even if they don’t Endpoint have looked like a solid team and could put up good point per dollar scores here. Flamez, Robiin, and Surreal are my favorite plays from them.

The only interest I have in Fnatic would be a Krimz one-off, but at his middle of the road price of $7.4k I’d rather go down further or just pay up for favorites. Fnatic are a nightmare to target for DFS currently.

Top Captains

It’ll be the same captains as throughout this group for me. That means Yekindar and Jame, Device and Dupreeh, Brehze and Cerq, and Elige and Naf. I’m less likely to go to Liquid as they’re a bit expensive for their odds, but they are a strong GPP play, as they’ll have super low ownership.

I expect Device to probably be the chalkiest play, I like Dupreeh a lot. He’s yet to really blow up this tournament, but the potential is always there.

Even though I like Endpoint I’m not likely to go there at captain, I prefer to use them in the flex.

I’m definitely not interested in a captain from Fnatic.

Good luck on Monday!


Leave a Reply