Group D continues with the 3rd game of the round robin on Saturday. Lock is still at 7 am EDT and the games are:
EG (60% implied win probability) vs Fnatic
Astralis (51%) vs VP
Liquid (78%) vs Endpoint
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Flusha is still in the player pool. He’s still not on Fnatic anymore. Don’t play him.
Astralis played Nuke on Thursday and didn’t sub Bubzkji in, it seems like he is not playing any maps currently. You can play Xy9pyx without fear of him getting subbed.
Pricing has gotten a lot better on this slate, oBo and Fallen in particular are up to reasonable prices as favorites.
The odds on this slate though are very interesting. After looking horrible for the first 2 days, Fnatic have a 40% win probability vs EG and after playing fairly well Endpoint only have a 22% implied win probability vs Liquid. I think Fnatic is a bit too high and Endpoint are a bit too low. I’d have both games at about 70/30.
At this point, I am simply not interested in playing Fnatic. They got by Endpoint on Friday, and while I don’t think Endpoint are half bad, it’s still embarrassing for Fnatic. If you have the stomach for it, Krimz and Brollan are going to be low owned and have upside if FNC suddenly remember how to play.
Speaking of Endpoint, they’re still super cheap. They looked competitive against VP, and obviously as I just mentioned crushed Fnatic. I don’t necessarily expect them to win again Liquid, but their prices are so low they could make for solid value plays even in a loss. Crucial and Robiin are my favorite plays of the bunch, but Flamez has big upside and Surreal is dirt cheap. I don’t mind a one-off or stack here from Endpoint.
Of course, with the cheap stack we’d need something to pay up for. EG are the easy place to look. I like both Brehze and Cerq on this slate. oBo has had his ups and downs so far, with a few more downs than ups, but he’s still fairly cheap and could be a good 3rd in stacks. Tarik is also a fine option and will likely have low(ish) ownership.
Liquid you of course wouldn’t stack with Endpoint, and honestly they’re a bit overpriced. Elige is all the way at $10k and Naf is at $9k. There’s a clear path to them putting up top scores, they sweep while FNC drags EG into a bad fantasy contest and the Astralis/VP game is also tightly contested and thus low scoring, and they are technically the biggest favorite. Fallen is a still at a relative discount, and makes for a solid play at $7k.
I saved the Astralis/VP game for last because it’s the toughest to know what to do with. My inclination is that people will see that Jame is underpriced/VP as a whole are priced like underdogs, and lean towards that side. Especially if they aren’t playing Endpoint or Fnatic, they’ll need the savings. This makes me like Astralis quite a bit for GPPs. Magisk is far too cheap. He’s showing signs of life, he just hasn’t put it together for a full series yet. I still do think he’ll be somewhat sneaky as his recent numbers aren’t great so he’ll be projected pretty low across the industry. With Device and Dupreeh priced up above the VP studs, I expect their ownership to be reasonably low, which makes them strong plays.
Even though he just exploded on Friday, I expect Device to be fairly low owned again on Saturday. Of course, he’s in the toughest matchup he could be within this group, but that doesn’t hurt his ceiling, just his chances of reaching it. I also don’t mind Magisk captain as it saves you quite a bit of money. Jame and Yekindar are both fine captains on the other side.
I expect Brehze, Elige, and Naf to all be fairly popular. All 3 are fine plays but they’re fairly expensive on a slate that doesn’t have a ton of value (especially if you play Liquid aka not Endpoint). I also like Cerq as a way to save a bit of money.
Lastly, I like Crucial as a super low owned captain play that lets you save some salary. I slightly prefer Magisk, but either is a fine low cost option.
Good luck on Saturday!