On Friday we have day 2 of Group D. Day 1 saw a fairly surprising upset of Astralis falling to EG.
Fnatic (67% implied win probability) vs Endpoint
VP (64%) vs EG
Astralis (62%) vs Liquid
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Flusha is still in the player pool. He’s still not on Fnatic anymore. Don’t play him.
Astralis played Nuke on Thursday and didn’t sub Bubzkji in, it seems like he is not playing any maps currently. This may be something to keep an eye on if Astralis continues to struggle, as maybe they go to him for a spark off the bench, but for now we can play all 5 starters seemingly without sub risk.
Much of this slate comes down to how you interpret the EG win over Astralis. If you think that win was because EG are good/playing well then they’re probably too big of underdogs against VP and make for strong plays. If you think Astralis has fallen off, Liquid look like great plays.
My expectation is that most people will lean towards Astralis falling off, aka playing Liquid. Naf’s price is bumped up a little bit, $7k is reasonable given that they are moderate underdogs, however Fallen is still dirt cheap. He played well on Thursday, showing he still has some gas left in the tank. At $4.6k he’s a strong play either in a stack or as a one-off.
On the EG side of things, oBo had a rough go of it during the first two maps of his debut, bottom fragging on both. However, he showed some signs of life in the 3rd map, where he actually top fragged. He’s still way too cheap at $4.4k, and again makes for a strong value play on Friday. This is a talented EG team, especially if Cerq is back to his old self, which he looked to be on Thursday, they can definitely compete with VP. Cerq himself is also underpriced and he plus oBo will let you stack basically whoever else you want.
Of course, VP and Astralis are still fine plays in their own right. Jame, Yekindar, and Buster all had big day’s against Endpoint on Thursday, and are all basically the same prices on Friday. Magisk is getting into “too cheap” territory for Astralis. I know his recent stats (and thus his projections) look bad, but he has the upside to score just as well as Dupreeh and Device, both of whom are over $3k more expensive.
Finally, there is the Fnatic vs Endpoint matchup. I expect people will not want to play Fnatic, as they did truly look terrible against Liquid. However, this will probably cause them to go fairly overlooked, and they are technically the biggest favorite on the slate. I like Krimz and Brollan a good amount in GPPs. On the Endpoint side, Robiin is still far too cheap, and Surreal joins him as being underpriced. Endpoint may come in with decent ownership, as it seems the whole DFS community hates playing FNC, with pretty good reason.
I’m interested in basically all the same captains as Thursday, essentially the top 2 from every team not named Endpoint. That of course is Yekindar and Jame, Device and Dupreeh, Krimz and Brollan, Elige and Naf, and Brehze and Cerq. I like the Astralis guys a lot as I expect them to come in at low ownership after a rough performance Thursday, and I like Cerq for cost savings as he lets you build a unique lineup.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!