Welcome back! We have another 3 game slate from ESL Monday, as Group C continues. Lock is again at 7am EST, and the games are:
Gambit (91% implied win probability) vs TeamOne
Navi (80%) vs MiBR
Furia (64%) vs Cloud9
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
At this point Navi is up subbing B1t in on Overpass, Mirage, and Inferno that we know of. He subs in for Flamie on all 3 maps. Since this even started we’ve seen Flamie play Dust2 and Nuke. Navi permabans Vertigo and we haven’t seen them play Train (we also technically haven’t seen them play Inferno so they theoretically could have changed their sub patterns their too).
Navi and MiBR are both all over the place with their map picks. MiBR have picked 3 different maps so far in this tournament, interestingly all 3 maps that B1t definitely plays, and so have Navi. I’m not confident enough about map picks here to play either Flamie or B1t, although I do think it’s slightly more likely B1t plays the first two maps. If I had to, I’d guess that MiBR pick Mirage and Navi pick Dust2, but I could see Navi also picking either train (where we don’t know who plays) or Dust 2 (where Flamie plays). Neither guys stands out as an amazing play regardless, so like I said I won’t be playing Flamie or B1t.
The optimal construction for this slate feels fairly obvious. Furia’s “bottom” fraggers are too cheap, Gambit has solid mid/upper range plays, and S1mple. Maybe mix in a little Floppy and you’ve got a really strong lineup. For cash and single entry I don’t see a reason to go away from that.
Even in GPP’s I have very limited interest in TeamOne and MiBR. They’re simply outclassed by their opponents. It is worth noting that S1mple tweeted he hasn’t been feeling well for the past 2 days. IF that continues I guess MiBR has a little bit of appeal. I think it’s much more likely S1mple bounces back. He had more deaths than kills for the series on Sunday, the first time he’s done that since October 24th of last year. I do not expect a repeat on Monday.
What should be an interesting angle though, is Sh1ro vs S1mple. Most people are going to play S1mple + at least 1 of Axile/Hobbit (most likely Axile). A Sh1ro + Electronic lineup will likely have super low ownership (relative to S1mple + Axile at least). If S1mple is still a bit under the weather I don’t expect Navi to lose, I think it’s likelier someone else steps up, and Electronic is the most likely candidate. And honestly, Sh1ro can outscore S1mple even if S1mple plays well, he has huge upside too.
arT, Junior, and Vini are all too cheap. Yeah Furia are the smallest favorites, but they’re still pretty big favorites. arT and Vini have been playing great this even, and Junior definitely has high upside. He has been playing a bit of a passive role, he has very low deaths but also pretty low kills since joining Furia, but I can’t really blame him as matching the aggression of arT and co is not exactly easy. I like arT and Vini slightly better but all 3 are definitely in play.
On the C9 side, it’s Floppy’s turn to be underpriced. They all score roughly the same so whoever is the cheapest is typically the best play. Today that’s Floppy and Alex. Alex is cheaper but has also started to separate himself, in the wrong direction, from the rest of C9. I don’t mind both of them as a way to make a super unique lineup. Even in a loss they could both potentially reach value.
S1mple is likely to see his ownership dip a tiny bit with his poor performance on Sunday, but he’s still the top captain option. I expect him to come out ready to go, especially with Navi in a win or go home scenario. If you want to pivot off of him, Sh1ro, Axile, Hobbit, and Electronic are all good high priced options.
In the mid-range arT is intriguing. He feels like more of a GPP play, as he can put up 30 just as easily as he can put up 80. Vini is an interesting option if you want to go all the way cheap, he really opens up the rest of your lineup. Of course, he can also easily put up a stinker, but has been playing well lately.
Floppy has just as much upside as arT and Vini, but should be even lower owned. You can basically make the same lineup as with Vini cpt but with even lower ownership. I’m not sure you really need to go there on this slate, but C9 are the most likely underdog to win, or at the very least take a map.
That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!