We have day 2 of Group C on Saturday. We again have a 3 game slate that again locks at 7 am EST. The games are:

Gambit (77% implied win probability) vs Cloud9

Navi (70%) vs Furia

MiBR (67%) vs TeamOne

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

So Navi is still subbing B1t in. In fact, not only are they subbing him but they’ve added him to a second map, as he played Overpass on Friday. He again subbed in for Flamie on Overpass. I’m not confident in the map picks for this series, so I’m going to simply remove both Flamie and B1t from my player pool. Flamie has been bad lately anyways, and it’s very unlikely B1t plays both maps in a sweep for Navi. However, it is worth mentioning if Navi added B1t to Overpass they could’ve added him elsewhere too, B1t could theoretically play on Mirage and/or Train too. We won’t know this ahead of time though, so like I said, I’m simply taking Flamie and B1t out of consideration.

Slate Analysis

We again have 3 big favorites, although it’s a different combination of favorites. Furia are now in the underdog role, while MiBR have moved to the favorite role. I think Navi definitely deserve the heavy favorite tag against Furia, as Navi is now 6-0 against Furia since Furia got to Europe, but I’m not so sure about MiBR deserving theirs. I do think they should be favored, but I think their implied odds should be more like 55-60% instead of 67%. These teams (each with 1 different player, the current player being a downgrade for both) met twice last year, and went 2-2. It is worth noting one of MiBR’s (Boom at the time) wins was a 16-1 stomp. However, I think MiBR are getting too much respect here and TeamOne not enough.

I like TeamOne a lot for GPP’s. pesadelo and prt in particular stand out as cheap options that can put up big numbers, and while malbsmd is a bit more expensive, I like him in stacks too.

Outside of TeamOne, I’m back on the favorites again. S1mple is still doing S1mple things, and Gambit’s 3 headed monster of Sh1ro, Hobbit, and Axile continue to impress. If you need some value from those teams, it’s basically just Boombl4 or Interz, as everyone else is above $7k (besides the unplayable Navi players).

I suppose Alex and/or es3tag are worth a look because they’re so cheap for C9, and they can easily put up 50ish in a loss. That might just be enough without a ton of value. Junior is also too cheap, and I think he’s actually my preferred 2nd option behind S1mple in that game. I’d rather play him for $5.6k even with S1mple than Boombl4.

Top Captains

S1mple showed on Friday why no matter what the pricing is he’s always viable at captain, putting up an absolutely massive score. With pricing a little bit looser Saturday he’s a bit easier to fit, but even with increased ownership he’s still my top captain play. I do think Sh1ro, and to a lesser extent Hobbit and Axile, have the upside to outscore him, so if I need a bit of cost savings in my lineup construction (or if you’re building multiple lineups) I think they’re definitely worth playing.

I don’t love any captains from MiBR, they score too evenly. If I want to go cheaper than the Gambit trio, I’ll likely look to pesadelo and prt. Alex and es3tag are also worth a look in MME as you can really jam in studs around them.

Good luck on Saturday!

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