Group C starts on Saturday. After a wide open Group B where genuinely any of the 6 teams could beat any of the 6 others Group C is…very much not that. Gambit and Navi stand out as potential top 5 teams in the world, meanwhile Furia are probably top 10-15…and then it’s a pretty steep drop off until you get to Cloud 9 and MiBR, who themselves are pretty far ahead of TeamOne. It just so happens that Friday lines up so that the 3 top teams are playing the 3 bottom teams. Lock is at 7 am EDT, and the games are:
Gambit (82% implied win probability) vs MiBR
Navi (78%) vs Cloud 9
Furia (88%) vs TeamOne
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
We have 3 teams in this group that were running 6 man rosters. So far, TeamOne has announced that they officially are not going to play cass1n in officials. I have to imagine Navi is going to do the same with B1t, although they haven’t officially announced it yet. Furia hasn’t played Honda since Junior got to Europe and I expect that he won’t play at all going forward either, although again this hasn’t been officially announced.
The stopping with subbing is of course because of Valve announcing the penalty for subbing in their major qualification point system. Teams can technically still sub, but it penalizes their points so I’d be surprised if they continue to. The only individual player we know of that would have sub risk is Flamie, and he’s not exactly a great play anyways.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a slate like this in T1 tournaments. There are 3 huge favorites and pricing is tight. There really aren’t any egregiously underpriced plays on the big favorites.
arT sticks out as underpriced at $7.4k if you look at his one month stats. He has been on fire since Junior joined the team, albeit in only a 9 map sample size. I used to mention this while Furia was beating up on bad teams in NA, but arT’s hyper-aggressive style nets him a lot more kills against inferior teams, which TeamOne definitely is. arT has the upside of many of the $8k and up guys, but for a much lower price. Junior is also only $7.6k. He hasn’t put up the biggest numbers since joining Furia, but we know the potential is there and he’s relatively inexpensive. Kscerato and Yuurih are both reasonably priced especially compared to Sh1ro and S1mple, I like both of them, although it’s worth noting that Kscerato has been much better for DFS recently.
Gambit are all priced really well. Throughout their dominant run at IEM Katowice, Hobbit remained the most disrespected man in DFS. It’ll be interesting to see if that remains the case as DFS players flock to Sh1ro and Axile. All 3 are very much in play in a matchup that Gambit should dominate. They’re on a mission to prove Katowice wasn’t a fluke and they are a Top 5 team.
Lastly, Navi has the cheapest players of any of the favorites. This makes sense as S1mple absolutely dominates their kill share and they are the “smallest” favorites at a still huge 78% implied win probability. It never feels good to click them into your lineup, but Boombl4 and Perfecto have actually closed the gap on Electronic in terms of fp/r over the past 3 months. Both are under $7k and we need to get value from somewhere on this slate. With how tight pricing is I actually don’t think S1mple is an absolute must play on this slate, but don’t get me wrong he’s still a very solid play.
There’s also no one that really stands out as underpriced on the underdogs. It doesn’t help that all 3 teams are super balanced. All 5 players on C9 score within .08 fp/r of each other over the past 3 months, the top 4 of MiBR score within .09 fp/r of each other and the top 4 of TeamOne score within .1 of each other. There’s no Ropz who reliably puts up huge numbers even when his team loses. I guess Mezzi looks like a decent value at $5.0k, and he should have basically 0 ownership. Pesadelo is in a similar boat but again I don’t love either play.
If I were to MME, I’d mix in a few underdog stacks, with C9 probably being my favorite, but for single entry and/or cash I’m sticking to the favorites.
S1mple is definitely the top projected captain, but good luck fitting him without playing some underdogs. I’ll like be dipping down to cheaper plays on this slate.
Some of my favorites of those cheaper plays are: arT, Hobbit, Junior, Ax1le, and Kscerato. All of them have strong upside and are much cheaper than S1mple. I’m not likely to go super cheap at captain and even Boombl4 and Perfecto feel a little thin although with the pricing as tight as it is I suppose they are viable.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!