We’re on to the final day of Group B on Thursday, with the 3 games all starting at 2 pm EDT. Those games are:
G2 (64% implied win probability) vs Mouz
Vitality (60%) vs NiP
Faze (52%) vs Ence
G2, NiP, and Ence all sit at 3-1 in the group stage. Vitality is 2-2. Faze and Mouz are eliminated from playoff contention. There are a ton of different playoff scenarios, but they don’t really matter because all the 3-1 teams can lock in their playoff slot with a win, and Vitality needs a win to force a tiebreaker. All these teams will be giving max effort. Mouz were already eliminated before Wednesday’s game, and they definitely gave it their all. Faze I guess maybe we could see a weird map pick or something but I expect overall full effort from all 6 teams.
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No changes since the tournament started, none of these teams sub anymore, player pool looks correct.
What’s it going to take for Ence to get a little respect around these parts? They’ve taken down G2 and now Vitality in their last two series, yet are still technically underdogs against a Faze team that’s 1-3. These haven’t been fluke wins either, Ence have been the better team in both those matchups. I’m hopeful that this will lead to Faze being overowned and Ence being low owned. I personally think these odds should be 60/40 in Ence’s favor.
Spinx has looked like an absolute stud so far this tournament. He’s not playing from Israel anymore, so he actually has good ping and boy is it showing. He’s pretty cheap at only $7.2k. Doto is also extremely cheap at only $4.6k. He’s unlikely to light up the scoreboard, but if Ence wins he could get you 50+, which would make him a great point per dollar play. I like Ence a lot on this slate as being the “underdog” should keep their ownership in check.
Speaking of cheap, Ropz, Hunter are both underpriced from that game. Hunter is .01 fp/r behind Niko over the past 3 months, and is actually .07 fp/r ahead of Niko over the past month, yet he is $1,800 cheaper. Meanwhile, Mouz have a 2-12 map record over the past month. During that time, Ropz is somehow averaging .74 fp/r, trailing only Zywoo and the aforementioned Hunter on the entire slate. He’s doing that while Mouz have been getting demolished. I expect more of the same on Thursday, and I like the idea of running Ropz and Hunter in the same lineup. Frozen is also worth a look at $7.2k, although his 1 month numbers have seen a bit of a drop off (.53 fp/r over the past month vs .67 fp/r over the past 3 months, which of course includes the .53 from the past month).
Vitality continues to struggle, but Zywoo is always going to get his. Don’t get too cute, Zywoo is always a great play. I’m not super interested in any of his teammates, as there are better plays at each of their price points. On the NiP side, Hampus is quietly underpriced. His KD is going to be negative most of the time, but he puts up a lot of kills and assists to go with his high deaths. His aggressive plays can lead to big rounds too, he’s actually the only player on the slate with multiple aces over the past month with 2, and is tied with Dycha for the lead over the past 3 months with 3. Nawwk is still too cheap as well, although he has kind of the opposite problem from Hampus. He doesn’t die very much but he has super low kill numbers, and is one of only 2 players on the slate without a 4k or better during the last month (Snappi). Rez and Plopski are fine options, but I prefer others priced near them like Ropz and Hunter.
With Ropz and Hunter so far below Zywoo in price, I slightly prefer them as my top 2 captains today. I of course still like Zywoo. Spinx is also worth a look, as he has shown he can put up huge numbers in Ence victories.
Niko should fly way under the radar, and with Amanek starting to AWP more I actually like Niko better. Getting him at super low captain ownership is never a bad idea.
That’s pretty much it for who I’m looking at for captain, I don’t think you need to go any lower than Hunter or Spinx in the 7k range.
Good luck on Thursday!