After a day off, presumably for the ESL staff to recover after 8 straight days of games, ESL Pro League is back on Wednesday. We have 3 more games, with lock at 7:00 am EST. The games are:

G2 (55% implied win probability) vs Faze

NiP (57%) vs Mouz

Vitality (70%) vs Ence

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

No changes since the tournament started, none of these teams sub anymore, player pool looks correct.

Slate Analysis

Pricing is better than Monday but still weird in some spots. Forunately, most of that is overpricing of players who we would most likely ignore anyways. Looking at you, Jackz.

Nawwk remains underpriced at $5.4k, and while I wouldn’t go so far as to call him a free square, NiP are taking on a Mouz that has looked horrible since replacing Karrigan with Dexter, and are already eliminated from playoff contention after an 0-3 start. I like NiP’s chances in this matchup and Nawwk has looked much better than he did previously so far in this tournament.

Faze are technically underdogs vs G2, but Coldzera also still looks underpriced. At only $5.6k you don’t need a ton out of him to be happy.  Lastly for the super cheap guys, RpK is on the biggest favorite of the day and costs only $5.2k. He doesn’t have as much upside as Nawwk in particular, but it’s a bit safer that at the very least be on a winning team (although that doesn’t really entirely guarantee a good score).

Rez and Hunter are two targets I like in the mid-range. Both have been playing well lately and are probably a bit underpriced relative to their recent performance and upside.

On the high end, Zywoo remains too close to his competitors, but Niko and Ropz are both viable as well. With the value available you can probably fit 2/3 of them in your lineup.

Top Captains

With the other top options closer in price to Zywoo than on Monday, it makes me like him more at captain. He’s always a good bet to put up the top raw score on the slate, and there’s enough value to fit him and another stud in your lineup. Niko and Ropz are viable pivots, but I prefer Zywoo personally.

Hunter is my favorite mid-range captain, he’s been playing really well during this tournament. He could just be on a hot streak, or the new team setup has unlocked him a bit, but either way I’m going to keep rolling with him. He may not score as many raw points as Zywoo, but his salary let’s you differentiate a bit from Zywoo captain linueps.

Similarly, I like Nawwk at the very low end. You can load up the rest of your lineup if you play him, so if he puts up a really strong point per dollar score and the rest of your studs put up strong raw scores this construction could work.

That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!

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