We’re back with Day 3 of Group B. This group continues to be exciting in that anyone can beat anyone, even if no one is playing particularly great CS. With the US having moved the clocks ahead, lock is now at 7 am EST and the games are:

Faze (57% implied win probability) vs NiP

G2 (66%) vs Ence

Vitality (66%) vs Mouz

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

No changes since the tournament started, none of these teams sub anymore, player pool looks correct.

Slate Analysis

Umm I think someone broke Draftking’s pricing algorithm. There’s crazy pricing all over the slate today.

We’ll start with the most obvious underpricing, and that’s Broky. He has struggled a bit lately, although he did break out of his slump in a big way on Sunday, but there’s no way he should be $4.8k. He’s an absolute free square in this spot. You can pair him with Coldzera and/or Rain for an extremely cheap 3 stack. Twistzz is way to expensive and so is Karrigan is laughable at $8.4k, so it’s only those 3 I’m interested in. I suppose Twistzz is worth a look if you MME.

I will say, Broky being that cheap will make NiP go underowned, so I like them in GPP’s. Hampus and Nawwk are underpriced themselves, although Hampus is not quite as cheap and Nawwk not quite as good (or as high of a ceiling). Plopski and Rez are also moderately priced, they’ve been NiP’s two best players over the past month fp/r wise.

I’m not entirely sure if I should attribute Ence’s relative success so far in this group to them play well or their opponents playing poorly, but I’m leaning towards the latter. I expect G2 to take care of their business on Monday. Hunter has been playing great of late and as long as Niko can play like he did Sunday instead of whiffing his AWP shots like he did Saturday (or if they just let Amanek AWP), I like pairing them together in this spot. Hunter is too cheap for his recent production. Amanek and Nexa are in a bit of a no man’s  land in terms of pricing. I’d much rather go down to Broky or even Nawwk than play them. Jackz is still priced at an insane $9.8k, if you see someone with him in their lineup challenge them to a H2H. I will say he has played decently well since returning, but there’s absolutely no reason to play him as 2nd most expensive player on the slate.

On the Ence side, I’m staying away unless I MME. If I do use them I still like Dycha even though he attempted to set the record for most deaths in a CSGO game on Sunday, and Spinx is a bit underpriced. But like I said, I’ll be mostly on G2 here.

The Vitality vs Mouz matchup is a battle between two teams who are big time struggling right now. Vitality look absolutely lost outside of Zywoo, and even he hasn’t been enough to will them to victory lately. Meanwhile, Mouz have really struggled since replacing Karrigan with Dexter. Through those struggles, Ropz and Frozen have been beacons of hope. Normally I try to avoid playing opponents on 3 game slates, but with how clear the top fantasy plays are, and how bad the bottom players on each team have been, I don’t mind making my 3 stack from this game Zywoo + Ropz and Frozen. In fact, that’s probably what I’m going to do in my main lineup. I guess Shox and acoR are worth a look outside of the main 3 from this game, but I likely won’t have much of either outside of MME’ing.

Top Captains

As always, Zywoo stands alone above the field. He’s also way more expensive than the actual top options, so basically ignoring Jackz, Twistzz, Misutaaa, Karrigan, etc. I still like him at captain, but I’m more likely to go to Ropz, Hunter, Frozen, maybe even Broky if I want to jam studs into the rest of my lineup.

Add Niko, maybe Plopski and maybe a little bit of Dycha in MME and that’s pretty much my list. When there are super high upside (and high likelihood of hitting that upside) players I try to run a tight player pool at captain, as it’s pretty likely one of the guys I mentioned is the top scorer on the slate.

That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!

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