We’re finally on to the last day of this group, our 5th straight day with the same 6 teams in a 3 game slate. This slate starts at 1:00 pm EST, as 3 games run concurrently to prevent any funny business with throwing games to keep teams out of the playoffs. The games Friday are:
Heroic (51%) vs Complexity
Big (81%) vs Renegades
OG (53%) vs FPX
Both Heroic and Complexity are guaranteed to make the playoffs, but the winner of this game I believe should be the group winner, so I’d expect normal map picks/strategies/100% effort from this series. OG vs FPX is a winner makes the playoffs, loser goes home match, so obviously both team will be giving 100% effort there. Big and Renegades are both eliminated, but I expect both teams to still be giving their best efforts. Renegades will be using every game they can to try and improve, and while we might see an oddball map pick or some new strats tested by Big, ultimately they should be giving basically their best effort as well.
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Renegades still have Shipz listed as a sub but so far he hasn’t played and I don’t expect him to here.
Niko will be back in the lineup for OG you can play him again.
This could honestly be the best slate of all 5. We have two coinflips and the 80/20 game Big is priced pretty well. Except for Xantares. At only $7.6k he is too cheap, and will undoubtedly be chalk. The other 4 Big players are definitely all playable, Syrson and Tabsen for their upside and K1to and Tizian for salary savings. Tabsen should have decently low ownership since he has a worse FP/R than similarly priced Syrson and roughly the same as much lower priced Xantares. I like Tabsen for GPPs.
DK absolutely refuses to price down INS, so I’m still not super interested in Renegades outside of MME’ing. As I’ve mentioned many times take all their projections, Alistair’s especially, with a big grain of salt since they come from beating up on Australian teams and Alistair’s come from when he was the star AWP for his team.
I’m interested to see where ownership lands in the Heroic/Col series. Heroic are technically favorites but Col are always high owned, as BlameF draws a ton of ownership, and that ends up with Col as a whole having high ownership. My guess is that they’ll end up higher than Heroic. Heroic are a pain in the ass to figure out who to play right now. It seems like they switch off unleashing Refrezh and Sjuush, and Cadian, Stavn, and Teses all already took turns having good games. Now with 5 legitmate DFS plays every day, it’s a nightmare to pick who you want to play. Since Cadian Awps he at least should be the most consistent, as he’s always set up for kills, but you can really stack whoever you want with him, especially with Sjuush back to being cheap again. All that combined is going to make people want to click on Col, so I love Heroic for GPP’s.
OG’s ownership will also likely be much higher than their 53% implied win probability dictates it should be. Issaa should be a driving force behind. He’s flat out too cheap at $4.6k. If you play cash, don’t overthink it, lock him in. In tournaments though, I like FPX quite a bit. Styko can be swapped in for Issaa in the “decent player who’s way too cheap” spot, as he’s only $200 more. zehN, Farlig, and Maden all have as much upside as anyone on OG, and I do think FPX have a strong chance to win this. I’ve been playing them and touting their talent since they were on Godsent, and I’m not going to stop now. I do think this is a coinflip game, and I’d rather bet on this side of the coinflip where I make more money if I get it right, aka FPX.
After writing up BlameF as my top captain play all week, he finally came through on Thursday, putting up 90+ flex points. I’m going to move away from him a bit on Friday, as I already mentioned I like Heroic in tournaments. I do think he’s a fine cash/single entry play though, as he still has far and away the best FP/R over the past month.
My captain ownership is going to be fairly spread out on this slate. My favorite plays are zehN and Cadian, but I’ll also mix in Stavn, Farlig, and possibly Teses and Maden for some salary relief with decent upside.
If you want to play Col and OG, I like Poizon, Mantuu, and Valde as well. Poizon has really been playing well this tournament, and has already shown strong upside a couple of times in this event. Mantuu and Valde are OG’s best players, so if OG wins it’s likely that at least one of them has a strong day.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!