Thursday brings us our 4th of 5 days of the same 6 teams playing their round robin group stage. Lock is still 6:00 am EST and the games are:

Heroic (63% implied win probability) vs OG

Big (67%) vs FPX

Complexity (83%) vs Renegades

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

Renegades still have Shipz listed as a sub but so far he hasn’t play so I’m not too worried about it. I also don’t on playing Renegades so it doesn’t matter anyways.

niko is technically still a part of the Heroic organization, he’s on loan to OG, so he can’t play against Heroic. This mean OG will have to use a sub. Who the sub is doesn’t matter for OG for DFS since niko is in the player pool, but it does matter in terms of how much it will help Heroic. HLTV currently (a little before 6pm EST on 3/10) has NBK listed. NBK is listed as a sub on ESL’s site as well, so it makes sense that he’d be the one who plays with them. It doesn’t seem like there’s any bad blood, and I expect him to use this game as a mini tryout for a new team so I expect him to be the same player he always was and take it 100% seriously. They don’t have another sub listed so I think it would have to be their coach if not NBK, which would obviously be a disaster for them, and a boon for Heroic. I’ll try to update here and in Discord if it becomes clear who is playing. In the meantime, DO NOT PLAY niko.

Slate Analysis

It will be interesting to see how much the past couple days impact ownership on Thursday’s slate. I don’t think Col’s poor performance against Big will affect their ownership at all, nor should it. They’ll be mega chalk on Thursday. Now only sitting at 2-1, they can’t afford to drop this game so we should see their best effort. Where I do think we could see Wednesday’s performances swing some ownership are guys like K1to and Refrezh. K1to went absolutely nuclear on Wednesday, having by far his best series as a member of Big. I won’t be chasing, as he’s been on Big for a long time and it’s not like he suddenly is going to become their best player. Where I will be “chasing” though, is Refrezh. It seems like he’s already moving into a more aggressive and good for DFS role for Heroic, he led the team in 1st kills on Wednesday (although Teses was involved in the most first kills + first deaths and the stats also count on CT side where it’s often a bit more random who makes first contact). Credit to Heroic for quickly realizing he’s too skilled to be stuck in Borup’s old role, and now it’s on us to realize that he’s actually a solid DFS play now. Plus he’s only $5.6k.

Heroic as a whole are actually my favorite GPP play on this slate. Col and Big are likely to be super chalky as both are pretty big favorites, and by all means play them in chalk. OG’s constant saving could make it tough for 3 man stacks to get there, but Refezh + Cadian or Refrezh + Stavn make for great 2 stacks.

Col continue to underwhelm for DFS purposes in this tournament, as they got absolutely run over by K1to of all people Wednesday. Don’t think that will keep them from being mega chalk against Renegades. Renegades almost snuck a map off of OG, but they ultimately came up short. The haven’t won a map against anyone outside of T1 since they got to Europe. I don’t expect that trend to change on Thursday, as Col should take care of business. The BlameF + K0nfig + Poizon stack is likely to be popular, so in GPP’s I like the idea of mixing in jks or rush.

As I’ve already mentioned a couple times, K1to absolutely put Big on his back Wednesday. It’s unlikely he does that again Thursday, which could open the door for a sneaky FPX stack. FPX didn’t play great against Heroic, but they at least looked like they belong in the same server for the most part. If Big comes out with a lackluster performance like they did in their first two matchups FPX could win this. DK seems to be struggling with pricing players who are new to their teams, as Sunny has vaulted up to most expensive. That seems to have pushed everyone else down, as Zehn is only $6.6k. Styko is only $4.2k, which is definitely an enticing pricepoint. He’s not a bad player and when he gets hot he can pour in the fantasy points. He’s so cheap that I don’t mind him as a one-off.

On the Big side, like I said earlier I won’t be overreacting to K1to’s huge game. I’ll be focused on Syrson, Tabsen, and Xantares. I’d rather use Refrezh or jks as my salarly savers from favorites.

Lastly, while I’m unlikely to stack OG very much, Mantuu, Issaa, and Aleksib are all too cheap. After his huge game Wednesday I expect Issaa’s relative ownership to get way up. His raw ownership might be close to the same, but it’ll be a lot closer to his teammates. I wouldn’t begrudge anyone who wants to play any of those 3 guys as a one-off, and even the stacks look enticing since they’re so cheap. I don’t think there’s enough super expensive guys to make it worth playing aleksi and Issaa, but they’re certainly cheap.

Top Captains

BlameF has now let us down 3 straight slates, but don’t expect that to keep his ownership down here. He’ll probably end up my highest owned captain again, as his numbers are still exceptional even with the 3 straight “bad” games. K0nfig and Poizon are both solid pivots although with such lopsided odds they’ll both likely have 10%+ ownership too.

I kind of like the idea of using Refrezh at captain and loading up the rest of your lineup. Cadian is also a solid option, as like he showed on Wednesday where he scored 42 DK points on map 1, he can absolutely pop off when he gets hot.

Zehn is an interesting cheap option as well. It’s a bit riskier than Refrezh, but he has crazy upside should FPX pull off the upset. On the Big side, Syrson, Tabsen, and Xantares are all solid plays.

I doubt I’ll go here much, but Mantuu is cheap enough that a case can be made for him as well. He gets a fantasy boost from all the rounds he saves with his AWP, sometimes even getting kills as he is hunted.

That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!

 

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