We’re back with the 3rd straight day of the same teams as the round robin group stage continues. Lock is at 6:00 am EST again, and the games Wednesday are:
OG (78% implied win probability) vs Renegades
Heroic (67%) vs FPX
Complexity (54%) vs Big
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
***Update 11pm EST 3/9***
Renegades have apparently registered shipz as a substitute. Thanks to Roj in the discord for sharing the Reddit post. I’m not 100% sure if this is actually new or if no one had looked at their roster page on the ESL website, but it’s worth noting that they could sub. I’d expect alistair to be the most likely candidate as he’s the new addition and frankly not a great rifler (he is primarily an AWPer).
No changes, all of the rosters are correct on DK.
Let’s start with the obvious. That of course is OG. It’s their turn to play Renegades, who unfortunately don’t really look like they can cut it at this level of competition so far. We have seen OG lose when they were huge favorites before, but with every game super important for their playoff chances, I expect them to come out fully focused and ready to go. I’m more interested in trying to find an edge within OG than I am fading them in this spot, as even if they struggle a bit on the actual scoreboard in this series, their save-heavy playstyle really helps their DFS scores.
Obviously the raw ownership numbers on Wednesday will be a lot higher than they were Tuesday, but the proportions are interesting to look at. Valde and Mantuu were highest and about equal. They were about 50% high than niko who in turn was double Issaa and AleksiB. I’d expect similar proportions on Wednesday. If I had to put numbers on it I’d expect (at least in low $ contests) Valde and Mantuu to both be around 50% owned, niko around 30-35%, and Issaa and AleksiB somewhere around 15-20%. This gives us some clear options on how to use OG while still being unique. The most obvious way is to use a stack that doesn’t have Valde and/or Mantuu. The niko-Issaa-AleksiB stack should virtually unowned, and while you may think I’m crazy, you don’t actually need Valde and Mantuu to be the lowest scorers on OG for it to work. That stack really opens up your lineup to fit high priced players from the other games, so if Valde and Mantuu end up around 70 while the 3 in your stack score in the 60’s that could be enough if BlameF and Cadian both score 80. The slightly more palatable version is to fade one of the two, and only run 1 of AleksiB and Issaa, although I do expect that to be slightly more popular.
Renegades continue to get far more respect from DK’s pricing algorithm than they probably deserve, so I won’t be using them outside of MME’ing. If you do want to play them be careful with Alistair’s projections. As I mentioned in Tuesday’s article, most of his stats are from his time with Order, where he was the primary AWP and superstar of the team. That is not the case anymore, although he has been secondary AWPing a bit more lately, and frankly I think he should be the primary AWP over Sico. Until (if) that happens though, even at $4.6k he’s a tough play.
Heroic are the second biggest favorite on the slate, although I do want to stress that FPX are a talented team so this is by no means a walk in the park. FPX have been picking Nuke so far in this tournament. I bring this up because when we saw Heroic play Nuke on Tuesday, Refrezh had a much different T side role then we’ve seen him have on other maps so far. He was playing a sort of aggressive yard lurk position, very similar to what BlameF does for Complexity. This helped him put up his first truly good map since joining Heroic. Of course, the next 2 maps were right back to his bad for DFS supportive role, but if he gets to play Nuke again and Heroic sweep, his $5.2k price tag suddenly looks appetizing. It’s not guaranteed that he gets to play Nuke, that he performs close to as well as he did Tuesday if he does get to play Nuke, or that Heroic sweep, so I won’t be going nuts with him, but I also won’t be going out of my way to fade. Sjuush is definitely too expensive now, but giving him the top fragger price slot seems to have pushed Cadian, Stavn, and Teses down to prices lower than they should be. All 3 of them are good plays in this spot.
FPX are definitely live underdogs here. They had a solid team effort on Tuesday, with Sunny unexpectedly top fragging. I do not expect that to be the case again on Wednesday, and while projections likely won’t change much on him across the industry (although he doesn’t have many recent games, so the big game could boost him more than 1 game would most people) hand builders might want to go back to that well. I’ll be staying away myself though, AleksiB will be my bottom fragger of choice on this slate. I do like the other 4 members of FPX though. Zehn is the clear top player, then Farlig, Maden, and Styko are all close. Any one of them could end up the number 2 scorer (or even number 1, it’s not like Zehn has that dominant of a kill share) on any given slate. They’re priced fairly similarly, although Styko offers decent savings if compared to Farlig. Take your pick of any of them to pair with Zehn.
The last game of the day is Complexity vs Big. Big are a surprising 0-2 to start the group stage, dropping 2 matches they were technically favorites in. If they don’t beat Col it’s going to be close to if not actually impossible for them to get the Top 3 finish they need to make the playoffs. They have been incredibly streaky so far in this tournament, stringing together massive runs of both wins and losses at various points. In just the Heroic series Tuesday there were 5 separate runs of 5+ wins in a row, 3 by Heroic and 2 by Big. Meanwhile, Col have taken care of business so far against what were largely considered the 4th and 5th best teams in the group before the tournament started. They’ve done so in surprisingly balanced fashion, with jks and Rush really cutting into the kill totals and thus fantasy points we’d normally expect from BlameF and K0nfig in particular. Neither player has cracked 70 DK points despite Col sweeping twice in a row. My expectation is that in this matchup against a better team Blame and K0nfig will need to do more in order for Complexity to win.
I do think that this line is a little too close, I’d have Col more like 60-65% favored to win in this spot. With Poizon back and playing well I do believe Col are right on the cusp of being a top 5 team if not already there given the struggles of some of the best teams recently. I like BlameF, K0nfig, and Poizon a lot again on this slate. On the Big side, Tabsen is still underpriced relative to Syrson and Xantares. Xantares’ big performance on Tuesday is likely to attract some extra ownership for him, so I won’t be going out of my way to play him like I had mentioned doing on Tuesday.
I and many others have been burned by BlameF captain the last 2 days. Hopefully that keeps his ownership down, because I’m going right back to the well. Eventually he is going to have a huge game, and like I mentioned above, I think he’s more likely to do it in a closer series. It’s not that he hasn’t been playing well this tournament, he just has a map in each series where he hasn’t be that involved, going 15-10 during a 16-6 win on Nuke against FPX and 16-13 in a 16-10 win against OG on Mirage. Both of those kill totals are well below his average kills per round (the OG game in particular). K0nfig has been in a similar boat, as although he’s been positive on all 4 maps this tournament, he’s only run up a high kill total on one map (28 vs OG on Inferno, and that took OT to get to). K0nfig’s aggressive style leads to a lot of deaths, so he needs to pile up a ton of kills to have big fantasy days. He’s perfectly capable of doing just that, and I like him as a pivot off BlameF.
From OG, Mantuu and Valde will likely get nearly all the attention at captain, and while I do like them, I also like niko. niko top fragged in their series against Big, and was the 2nd best fragger on Inferno against Col before putting up a dismal score on Mirage. He should have way less captain ownership than the other two and definitely could be OG’s top scorer.
I don’t love anyone from Heroic at captain. They now have 5 strong fraggers, especially if they play Nuke again or unlock Refrezh on a different map. If I had to choose I’d go Cadian at captain but I’m more likely to focus my captains from Col and OG.
From the underdogs, Zehn is really the only person I’m super interested in captaining. If you do stack Renegades, INS makes sense at captain as if they do win it’s likely he goes off. From Big, you can make a case for Syrson, Xantares, and Tabsen, but like I mentioned I like the Col side of that matchup a lot, so I won’t be have too much of any of them aside from in MME.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!