We’re back with Group B of Blast Premier Spring 2021. It’s another 2 game slate, lock is at 10:30 am EST. The games are:
Vitality (78% implied win probability) vs Complexity
G2 (65%) vs EG
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Poizon is back for Complexity, per twitter. He is listed as “O” on Draftkings, but hey at least he’s in the playerpool. G2 and EG have no roster changes or sub risk.
Vitality is still a DFS disaster. Nivera subs in for Shox on Inferno and Misutaaa on Dust 2 and Nuke. While Poizon was out Complexity were pretty much permabanning Vertigo. Even while Poizon was in Vertigo seems to be their default ban, only switching it for teams that specialize on a map. It worth noting that the last 3 times a full strength Complexity faced Vitality, Col banned Inferno (dating back to October 2020, so fairly recently). The 2 times these teams played while Poizon was out Col banned Vertigo both times. Col has also switched between picking Mirage and Nuke, although they’ve yet to beat Vitality on either map. Long story short, this is a fairly unpredictable pick/ban. Fortunately, this is the first game, so we should get map picks before lock. As usually with Complexity, I’ll have several sets of lineups ready to go depending on what maps are played.
Pricing on this slate is…something. Somehow on a slate that has Rush and Stanislaw the cheapest players are…jks and Cerq? Now, jks has been massively underwhelming during his time with Col, but the team as a whole should get a boost with Poizon back in the mix. $4.4k is too cheap for him, but I at least can see a case for him being at the bottom of his team. Cerq on the other hand makes no sense. His last series (against FPX, not on any DK slate) was pretty rough, and all I can think of is DK did their pricing for EG based solely off that series. He’s an absolute free square at $4.6k. I don’t hate using both jks and Cerq (or possibly Poizon instead of jks), as it lets you load up with Zywoo cpt + Niko or vice versa, particularly if Nivera isn’t playing both of the first two maps.
Speaking of Nivera, if his 3 maps miraculously end up being the 3 maps of the series, I absolutely love him as a play at only $7.0k. Even if he’s just in for the 1st two, I’ll use plenty of him, as I do expect the most likely outcome is a Vitality sweep. If Inferno isn’t picked Shox becomes a strong play, but he is pricey up at $9.0k. Apex will likely be popular, but I’ll likely be taking my chances with the higher upside Col players on either side of him. BlameF in particular is too cheap at $6.4k.
In the G2/EG game, G2’s pricing pretty much makes sense. Hunter comes at a decent discount compared to KennyS, which could keep Kenny’s ownership down a bit. On the EG side, Ethan is overpriced at $8.0k which makes Brehze’s $6.8k price tag look cheap in comparison, but realistically that’s probably about where Brehze should be in this spot.
With the massive value there’s little reason to go away from Zywoo or Niko at the captain slot. It’s easy to make a lineup that fits both with one at captain. If you want to play a contrarian captain for ownership purposes, Shox and Nivera are interesting options from Vitality if the maps line up right for either of them. Hunter and KennyS are the options I’d consider from G2.
I’m not likely to run any captains from either underdog, but if I do I’d use BlameF or either Brehze/Cerq. I don’t think either underdog is particularly live, even though EG’s odds definitely say that they are. I haven’t been impressed with EG in Europe, they’ve yet to beat an actually good European team, most recently getting swept by FPX (which is the old Godsent lineups plus ChrisJ). Col definitely will benefit from having Poizon back, but it likely won’t matter in this series against Vitality, Vitality are on another level from Complexity right now.
That’s it from me, good luck on Monday!