IEM Katowice continues Saturday, and we have another 4 game slate. Lock is at 9:30 am EST and the games are:
Gambit (55% implied win probability) vs Heroic
Vitality (65%) vs Liquid
G2 (59%) vs EG
Navi (72%) vs Furia
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Junior is finally in Europe, and made his debut for Furia on Friday. He looked really good. Honda did not play either map. I don’t expect him to play on Saturday either, although it’s definitely not out of the question. We don’t know who he’d sub for though, so I’m make lineups as if he isn’t going to sub.
It’s worth noting that Furia went away from picking Inferno against NiP, picking Nuke instead, and even if they do pick Inferno, I’m not sure if Navi will be able to sub B1t in. That said, I’m still going to get rid of Flamie from my player pool as his upside or lack thereof isn’t work even the slightest sub risk.
Vitality is the other team on the slate with sub risk. For anyone missed the game the other day, apEX is officially back after his break that lasted 1 (one) whole series, so the sub concerns are back. As of this tournament, Liquid has switched from picking Inferno every series to Mirage every series. I have no idea if they’ll continue this against Vitality, and I’m not sure if it matters as it seems Vitality have to give their lineup ahead of time. Again, I couldn’t find anything in the rulebook about this, but Vitality played Misutaaa on Dust 2 then subbed Nivera in for Nuke so I can only assume that’s the case. Vitality have been all over the map with their picks lately, last time they faced Liquid they picked Vertigo (Mirage in that series even though they are now first picking it less than a month later). I do think there’s a pretty good chance Inferno isn’t pick, although it could be left for the decider, which would put Shox in play. Nivera and Misutaaa are too risky for me to use any of in this series.
Gambit proved they were deserving of their Vegas odds with a 2-0 on Mouz on Friday, and they were again installed as favorites against Heroic. Draftkings pricing algorithm must’ve missed the memo though, because they’re priced like fairly significant underdogs. With everyone trying to play Zywoo and S1mple, this is likely to lead to Gambit being incredibly chalky, much more chalky than their 55% implied win probability should dictate.
If you’ve been reading this article for a while I’m sure you can guess where I’m headed next…that’s right, Heroic are my favorite GPP play on the slate. They are expensive, although since his price is so low relative to his teammates I am finally interested in Niko, who has looked solid so far in this event. To fit them, especially with Zywoo and/or S1mple, you’ll need some value.
My favorite spot for value on the slate is Furia. They’ve said themselves there are some challenges to playing with Junior, namely that they are now speaking English for their communications, however I was impressed with their debut against a resurgent NiP team. Now, I’m not saying I think they’ll beat Navi necessarily, but they’re priced so cheap. arT is all the way down at $4.0k and Kscerato is under $6.0. Junior and yuurih are getting a bit more expensive, but still are pretty cheap. If Furia can force a 3 map series they’re likely to have at least one or two members put up big point per dollar scores.
To go a safer route with your value, apEX is only $5.4k. I expect Vitality to take care of business against Liquid, meaning apEX should score in the 50-60 range. That would likely be a hard point per dollar score to beat, especially if Furia get swept.
Both teams are a bit expensive in the G2/EG series, I’m probably going to mostly stay away myself. I’d much pay up for S1mple or Zywoo than Brehze or Niko given the spots they are all in.
Zywoo and S1mple are the best players in the world, and they’re also the best captain plays on this slate. I’ll be locking and loading them into most of my lineups. A huge portion of the field is likely to do this, but unlike a big subset of that group, I’m going to try to stay away from Gambit in order to make them fit.
Even though I like Heroic a lot, I’m likely to stick with them in the flex. Cadian and Stavn are simply too close in price to Zywoo and S1mple. I also don’t mind dropping down to Kscerato, arT, or even apEX captain in order to jam more studs. I’m okay with using S1mple against Furia today since Furia are so cheap. We’ve seen plenty of times where S1mple + 2 (or more) opponents are the top DFS scorers in a Navi game.
If you do play Gambit, Sh1ro, Hobbit, and Ax1le are all strong captain plays. Sh1ro will likely have a bit of ownership, but the other two should be low so that could be a decent way to differentiate a Gambit lineup.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!