We have another 4 game slate on Friday as IEM Katowice 2021 continues into the 2nd day of the main event. Lock is at 9:20 am EST, as the first game set of the day is again cut off, and the games are:
Astralis (75% implied win probability) vs EG
Gambit (59%) vs Mouz
Big (56%) vs G2
Spirit (54%) vs Heroic
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Since we saw Spirit on a slate, they’ve added Degster and Patsi (on loan) and replaced iDisbalance. You be wondering how that math adds up, but it’s because they’re added Patsi as their 6th man. They were subbing him in seemingly randomly, but haven’t subbed him in for several matches and not at all since the start of their play-in matches at Katowice. I’m going to assume that he won’t be playing on Friday either.
Speaking of subbing in Katowice, I’m not really sure what’s going on with the rules around subbing. Both Astralis and Vitality did not make their normal substitution on the first map of the series (Xyp9x played Nuke and Misutaaa played Dust 2), but then for Vitality Nivera did sub in for the 2nd map (Nuke). I couldn’t find anything in the rule book, but I remember a tournament from last year where the lineup for map 1 was due 8 hours before the match but then teams could sub between maps, perhaps that’s the case here? If that is the case, that would mean the only way Xyp9x sits is if Astralis pick Nuke or it’s the decider. I doubt Astralis pick it, but it could definitely be the decider. It’s not a high enough chance to make me fully fade Xyp9x though, I’ll leave him in my pool for at least half my lineups. Also, you may have found yourself wondering “who the hell is vester” if you were looking at the player pool. He’s a member of Astralis’ junior team, and they’ve added him to the roster for this event. Given that this is a premier event, it seems unlikely that he will play, but you never know.
This is going to be a bit shorter than normal as I’m a bit pressed for time tonight. I was a bit surprised by the line in all 3 non-Astralis games. To be honest I expect Mouz, G2, and Heroic to all be at least slight favorites. I do think the lines are very sharp on Gambit and Spirit, I just didn’t expect that to be the case. The Big vs G2 game though, I simply think G2 is a better team than Big. It’s not a massive gap in my opinion, but I do think it’s a gap. G2 and their depressed prices are my favorite GPP target. Mouz is also entirely too cheap, as is Mir from Spirit.
While EG have looked better of late, they’re still at least a level down from Astralis. Since they aren’t significantly cheaper than some of the underdogs with better odds, I’m not likely to go there on Friday.
Gambit and Stavn are a bit overpriced for their odds, which make them interesting GPP plays.
Device is the obvious play, and he’ll likely be popular after his big game Thursday. There are plenty of cheap plays to help fit his salary. I like Sh1ro as a pivot, especially since a lot of people playing Device captain will likely use Ropz (and the rest of Mouz) as salary relief.
Other captains I like are: Mir, Ropz, Cadian, Ax1le, Niko, and Frozen. Pretty much all of those guys are underpriced and will allow you nice flexibility in the rest of your lineup. It’s a decent day for a balanced build, as there’s a lot of talented players in the $6.5-8k range.
That’s it from me, good luck on Friday!