After a fairly wild Bo1 slate Tuesday, we have a 4 game Bo3 slate on Wednesday. This has made me realize I never published my “What Wins on 4 Game Slates” . I will do that soon, but the short version is that 3/2/1’s win about 40% of the time even though they are only used in 33% of lineups. On top of that another 5 times (13.5% of the sample) a 3-1-1-1 was the winning lineups. Overall almost 54% of the time the winning lineup contains a 3 stack on 4 game slates. Anyways, lock Wednesday is early, at 6 am EST, and the games are:
Complexity (88% implied win probability) vs Wisla Krakow
Fnatic (68%) vs MiBR
OG (60%) vs Cloud 9
VP (86%) vs Renegades
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No changes from yesterday for any of these teams. C9 were the only team not on the slate. Reminder that they have replaced Woxic with Xeppaa leaving to take over the main AWP role, although they will often times forgo the AWP (Alex has roughly the same number of kills with rifles as with the AWP over the past month). None of these teams sub.
We have two games that are at least somewhat close in odds, and two that are projected to be blowouts. There’s one spot however, where pricing is just off. That of course is OG, and more specifically, Valde.
Valde has the highest fantasy points per round over the past 3 months, at .74, of anyone on the slate besides INS, who has picking on poor Australians to run up his stats, yet he clocks in all the way down at 13th most expensive on the slate, and costs only $7.2k. He’s a lock and load play at this price. Now, he’s going to be popular, so how can we differentiate within our Valde lineups? One potential way is with NBK-. Nathan is quietly only .01 fp/r behind Issaa for 3rd on OG over the past 3 months. He’s a bit further back (and just barely behind AleksiB for last on the team) in the 1 month stats, but at 5.4k and presumably low ownership, he could pay off big if he outscores Issaa. Issaa himself is cheap and top fragged on Tuesday, he’s likely to be very chalky. He’s a fine play, but he’s likely to be the OG member I differentiate off of, prioritizing Valde and Mantuu while using NBK- to differentiate in 3 stacks.
On the other side, C9 are likely to go low owned, but even though they have the best odds of any underdog, they are a DFS nightmare to target. All 5 players sit between .48 and .55 fp/r over the past 3 months (and roughly half of Xeppaa’s numbers are from when he was on Chaos still) and between .44 and .55 fp/r over the past month. And it’s not like they’ve been terrible as a team either, they’re exactly .500 in maps over both the past 3 months and the past month. This is just an ugly team to target for DFS. In GPP’s I’ll likely force a bit of C9 just to play the ownership, but it’s hard to say who to play. Mezii is the cheapest and never carries any ownership, so I guess he’s my favorite of the bunch. For the most part, keep it simple from this game and just play Valde.
Both VP and Complexity are massive favorites, and they’re both priced like it. From VP all 5 guys are in play. The top 4 all have big upside, and Sanji is cheap enough that he profiles as a decent value play assuming VP stomp. Buster should no be more expensive than Jame and Yekindar, but since he is he’ll likely have low ownership, and makes for an interesting GPP play.
For Complexity, everyone is priced up besides Rush. The stats say that jks, Poizon, and Rush (but at least he’s cheap) have been horrible both over the past 3 months and over the past month, but it’s worth noting Complexity were losing quite a bit during that time period. If the come out and handle Wisla like the odds imply sure BlameF and K0nfig can’t get ALL the kills…or can they? I’m leaning more towards trusting the recent numbers, so my Complexity exposure will be almost exclusively K0nfig and BlameF, with some Rush mixed in in 3 stacks. Poizon and jks definitely have some GPP appeal, but both have just been so bad lately for DFS purposes.
Even though Wisla Krakow and Renegades are both huge underdogs, I don’t mind playing guys from either of them. Renegades proved they could hang with European talent, taking Mouz to the brink on Tuesday, and Wisla Krakow took a respectable amount of rounds off of VP. The real reason I’m interested in them though, is because they’re so cheap. There’s no Nawwk at 4.2k on this slate to let you play whoever else you want. From WK, Hades, Goofy, and Jedqr are all potential strong value plays. Renegades are priced up a bit more, but Alistair in particular is too cheap and if they manage to take a map INS and/or Sico could pay off their salaries. I’m going to be a little cautious with Alistair as since he’s no longer AWPing his stats will likely be impacted, but he 2 big maps in their series against TeamOne on Tuesday, but I’ll still have some as he is a talented player.
The only game I haven’t talked about yet is Fnatic vs MiBR. Since picking up this roster, MiBR have gone 5-12 in maps, but I do think there’s some upside here. They’ve had a lot of great moments and gone on some nice runs within maps, but ultimately just haven’t been able to be consistent enough, particularly on their T sides. I do think they’re live in this spot against Fnatic. MiBR are another team who scores very evenly, everyone except Danoco is in play. Chelo is the cheapest of the 4 former Boom players, so he by default becomes my favorite on this slate.
On the Fnatic side, Krimz has been the clear number 1 since the break, as Brollan has struggled to only an even KD, well below his usual standards. He’s too good of a player to not bounce back though, and I expect a big game from him sooner rather than later. Outside of the top 2, Jackinho is somewhat interesting as is *gulps* JW. JW has been truly terrible since the break, but every now and then he turns it on and has a big game, particularly when Fnatic are playing lesser teams.
Much like he’s my favorite flex play on the slate, Valde is also my favorite captain play. Like I already mentioned he has the top fp/r on the slate over the past 3 months besides INS, and he’s a bargain. He will be high owned though, so make sure to differentiate your lineup elsewhere.
There’s enough value on this slate that I’m only going to be targeting guys I think have a decent shot to put up the top score on the slate. For me that’s:
I won’t be captaining anyone from C9 or MiBR because of how evenly they spread out their kills, playing a stack from either of them in the flex will be low enough ownership as it is. I don’t think WK or Renegades have a good enough chance to win to be willing to trust any of them in the captain slot. If you Renegades pull off the upset by all means captain INS or Alistair, and same for Hades or Jedqr from WK. I don’t have that much trust in their teams though.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!