Group C continues on Saturday with 2 more games. Lock is at 10:30 am EST again and the games are:
Navi (67% implied win probability) vs Faze
Liquid (65%) vs MiBR
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Same rosters as Thursday. Rosters are correct on DK with the exception of missing B1t from Navi, which isn’t a big deal DFS-wise since he only plays the one map. He still subs in for Flamie on Inferno, and only Inferno.
Both teams in the Navi/Faze game permanently ban Vertigo. Usually in this situation the team that bans first (which will be Faze in this case) bans something different leaving the team that bans second to ban the permabanned map. I doubt that Faze will ban Inferno here, it’s even possible they pick it. Twistzz has only been in the roster for a short time, so it’s dangerous to look to much into past pick/bans, but Faze has picked Inferno a couple of times recently. Navi haven’t really shown a huge inclination to pick Inferno, but they don’t ban it either. Long story short, there’s a decent chance Inferno ends up in being one of the three maps in play, but it’s not a lock by any means.
Fortunately, this is again the first game of the day, so we should have maps before lock. Again, if you can’t or won’t be able to check for maps around lock, this safe move is to build with no Flamie. He is cheap on this slate though, so he’ll make for a solid value play if Inferno isn’t in the map pool.
I’m again a little surprised by the Liquid line. It almost feels like they’re getting the Cowboys, Patriots, Yankees, Lakers, etc treatment where fan favorite teams get lines that tilt more in their favor than they should. It’s been lost a little bit in how well Naf was playing as a full time rifler, but FalleN has really struggled since joining Liquid. That was exposed big time against Faze, as Fallen was a team worst 15-37 across the 2 maps, and had an ADR (average damage per round) of under 50. Now, I don’t think he or Liquid are as bad as they looked against Faze, but I do think this game is closer to a 50/50 than the 65/35 the odds imply. I’ve been impressed with this new MiBR roster, they’ve shown that their dominance of the Brazilian scene can carry over into international play. They do still need to work a bit on their T sides, although the did just rip off 8 straight T side rounds on Train of all maps against Navi of all teams on Friday.
Unlike Friday, where I ended up on Liquid because of pricing even though I didn’t really like them inherently (and for the record Liquid did end up way underowned relative to their Vegas odds), both Liquid and MiBR are priced relatively similarly. Danoco and shz are well below the bottom Liquid guys, but at the top Yel is actually the most expensive player from the game. That should lead to ownership leaning heavily towards the Liquid side of this game, and makes MiBR my favorite GPP play of the day. shz is entirely too cheap, and I’ll be using plenty of him in order to fit the more expensive players. I’m coming around a bit on the idea of using Danoco, but he’s still my least favorite play from MiBR. I like the other 4 players all about equally, although Yel in particular has been great lately. His price tag should keep his ownership fairly low even after his strong game on Friday.
From the Navi/Faze game, I again like the idea of a S1mple + 2 Faze stack, especially if Inferno is one of the two maps. Faze are definitely underpriced, and Navi showed glimpses of being Bad Navi, allowing MiBR to string together pretty substantial runs of rounds really on all 3 maps Friday. Faze are a more experienced team that likely won’t let Navi back in quite as easily as MiBR did, so losing 5 straight rounds to start the map could be even more punishing in this series. Electronic saw his price fall a ton from Friday to Saturday, which will likely mean we don’t get him at nearly as low of ownership as on Friday, but he’s still the clear number two play from Navi. It’s anyone’s guess who the 3rd fragger will be. Flamie is the cheapest and should have the lowest ownership because of his sub risk, so if Inferno isn’t in the pool (or even if it’s map 3) I like him as the 3rd Navi member in a 3 stack.
On the Faze side, Broky is the clear number 1 target. You can pair him with really any of his teammates. Even Olof has been playing really well of late, and makes for an interesting pivot off of the bottom priced MiBR plays. Coldzera has apparently been handling IGL duties, and it’s definitely cut into his fantasy upside. Given his price being $1k more than Olof, Cold is actually my least favorite play from Faze on Saturday.
Since these are the same 4 teams as Friday, it’s still the exact same situation regarding S1mple. He’s far and away the best captain play on the slate, and no one else is particularly close. Pricing is a bit more flexible on this slate than on Friday, so it’s easier to differentiate within a S1mple captain lineup.
Naf is again a somewhat interesting pivot, and his play has clearly been a big catalyst in whether or not this Liquid team finds success, making him a solid captain in Liquid stacks.
I’ll be heavy on the MiBR side of that matchup myself, and if I use any of them as captain it will likely be Yel or shz. Yel has shown the greatest upside while shz is absolutely dirt cheap. That said, I still prefer S1mple captain as MiBR typically frag pretty evenly.
I’m not likely to run any Faze captain, but if I do it would be Broky.
That’s all from me, good luck on Saturday!