We’re on the Group C of Blast Premier Spring 2021. It’s still 2 game slates, still starting at 10:30 am EST. The games on Friday are:
Navi (85% implied win probability) vs MiBR
Liquid (70%) vs Faze
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Faze is the only team that’s made a roster change since we last saw them. They’ve added Twistzz who will immediately debut against his former team, and benched Kjaerbye in the corresponding move. Olof is still playing as the rumored Karrigan acquisition likely won’t be until his contract with Mouz expires in March, if it happens at all. Twistzz should be an upgrade over Kjaerbye, although his form with Liquid wasn’t great ending 2020.
Navi still sub B1t in for Flamie on Inferno. That is the first game so we should have the map picks before lock, but if for whatever reason you won’t be able to check right before lock the safe bet is to leave Flamie out of your lineups. He’s unlikely to put a score you absolutely need to have even if Inferno isn’t played.
Both of these Vegas lines surprised me a bit. While Navi to be favorites, they’re much bigger favorites than I anticipated. They are running hot, having just won Blast Premier Global 2020 Finals in convincing fashion. I always mention when Navi look bad that they can turn it on at any time, well the same is true for when they look great. Everyone except S1mple can turn it off at any given moment. I do think MiBR are a bit more live here than the line gives them credit for, as I was impressed with the former Boom roster’s transition into EU competition.
Meanwhile, in the Liquid/Faze series I thought it would be close to 50/50 odds, maybe 60/40 Liquid favored. Liquid do have some solid wins over European teams, but I didn’t expect them to be at 70% implied odds. Faze were scuffling of late, but the addition of Twistzz should be a boost for them.
The question becomes, how can we apply this to DFS? Unfortunately, pricing is likely already going to lead people more on to underdogs than they otherwise would be. Pricing is pretty tight and S1mple is (spoiler alert) far and away the top captain play on the slate. If you want to pair S1mple captain with the only other truly reliable player for Navi, Electronic, you’re left with $6.2k per player for you 4 remaining players. This means you have to use at least 2 players from underdogs. Plenty of people will use those underdogs, especially Faze. This will also likely lead to Electronic being somewhat underowned, as people will play Boombl4 + Perfecto with S1mple captain in order to be able to fit a little more Liquid. I think the pricing is also going to leave Liquid underowned relative to their Vegas odds. Even if the Vegas odds were closer to 60/40 like I think they should be Liquid will likely still come in a bit underowned.
My favorite GPP construction is S1mple + 2 MiBR + 3 Liquid. You can fit it with S1mple at captain or in the flex. The game script you’re looking for from Navi/MiBR is something along the lines of: it goes 3 maps (or 2 very close) 1 of which is Inferno, S1mple carries while everyone else on Navi is mediocre. This may not be the most likely outcome, but it’s plausible enough and lets you get a build (3 Liquid + S1mple) that should be pretty unique.
Like I already mentioned, S1mple stands head and shoulders above the crowd on this slate. Not only is he a (the?) top player in the world right now, but the other teams on the slate don’t have a clearcut number 1 fragger, with the possible exception of Faze (Broky). Anyone outside of Danoco for MiBR can be the leading fragger any given day, and Elige, Naf, and Fallen all have that potential for Liquid.
If you buy into Naf being “unlocked” by being a full time rifler again, which I must say he put on a convincing performance during their last tournament, he makes for an interesting pivot off of S1mple.
Those are my two favorite plays, but I do think it’s worth mentioning that Electronic will like have very low captain ownership. I rarely go to him at captain myself, but every now and then he steps up and top frags ahead of even S1mple. On those days, Electronic captained teams often do very well.
Others I’m considering for my captain pool include Broky, Twistzz, Elige, and Fallen. I’m unlikely to captain anyone from MiBR, although I will use plenty of them in the flex.
Good luck on Friday!