We have 2 game slate on Tuesday, as the Blast Premier Fall 2020 Finals start. This should be some excellent counterstrike as anyone who has advanced this far in the tournament is pretty damn good. The games Tuesday are:
Vitality (64% implied win probability) vs Mouz
Astralis (60%) vs Navi
This is a weird for a 2 gamer. Part of that is because of Vitality’s subbing. As a reminder, Nivera comes in for Misutaaa on Dust 2 and Shox on Inferno. Mouz play both maps, so if we don’t get the pick/bans before lock (it is the 1st game), all 3 of Nivera, Misutaaa, and Shox are super risky plays. On top of that, Astralis have now started subbing Xyp9x out for Bubzkji on Nuke specifically. Both teams play Nuke a ton, so it’s likely that it’s at the worst the 3rd map decider. We know at lock but between the sub risk and his poor (fantasy) play Xyp won’t be in my player pool.
The other part that makes this 2 gamer unique, is that 3 of the 4 teams, arguably all 4 with how well Device has been playing, have a very clear best player. The last two players won’t be pretty, but it is possible to fit a lineup with all 4 of Zywoo, Device, S1mple, and Ropz with either S1mple or Ropz at captain. This is a very abnormal build for me on a 3 game slate, I usually run 3/3 or 3/2/1, but because both favorites have players who are unusable, I think the 2/1-2/1 is actually viable. For the bottom fraggers, I’m starting at Glaive price-wise ($5.6k and below), my order of price considered preference is Glaive > RpK > > chrisj > flamie > > karrigan > Boombl4. I’ll still make sure I get 3 players per game so that may influence me to do something like take flamie instead of chrisj or something similar, as I do think they’re close.
I will say, if we get the map picks in for the Vitality series before lock, and Inferno isn’t in the pool, I love Shox as a GPP play. The sub uncertainty should keep his ownership down, and besides Nivera, who in my opinion should be playing more maps, Shox is the best fantasy player outside of Zywoo. Even if Inferno is map 3, I wouldn’t mind Shox in a small percentage of my lineups, banking on the Vitality sweep (I would not run Ropz back in that scenario). Misutaaa I have much less interest in even if Dust 2 isn’t picked. He’d be in my player pool but I wouldn’t make it a priority (FWIW I do expect Vitality to pick Dust2, Mouz need to use their 1st ban on Overpass and Dust 2 is by far their lowest win percentage map).
Lastly, Frozen has been hot (see what I did there) lately. He’s really stepped his game up and has been a big part of Mouz’ success. I expect his ownership to come in pretty low here, so he’s also an excellent GPP play.
With so many studs on such a small slate, they’re of course my favorite captains. S1mple stands out for his price, as does Ropz. They are both on the underdogs, but I expect each to have plenty of ownership with the tight pricing. Zywoo and Device may see their captain ownerships slightly lowered because of the pricing differences, Device in particular since he’s more expensive than Zywoo.
If I don’t use a stud I’ll likely go cheap. I like Frozen, Glaive, and RpK as the cheap captains, but I’ll try to stick with the 4 studs or Frozen as much as possible. Glaive and RpK let you get a slightly better 6th player in 4 stud lineups, but I’m not sure the expected points goes up with the prospective loss of captain points.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!