We’re down to a 3 game slate on Saturday, as it appears Draftkings simply will not start the slate at 7 am EST anymore. The games we have start at 9 am EST and are:
VP (54% implied win probability) vs Fnatic
Astralis (58%) vs Furia
OG (56%) vs MiBR
After a couple of days of loose pricing, DK has tightened pricing right back up. All 6 teams are definitely viable on this slate, and all 6 teams have drastic price differences between their top and bottom players. Mantuu is up at $9.4k while Aleksib is at $4.8. Yuurih is $9.2k while arT is $4.6. The list goes on.
You’re likely going to need at least one of the value plays in your lineup. The question is whether to include that value play as part of a stack or as a one off. If you play the value as part of a stack, particularly a 3 stack (I like 3/2/1 or 3/3 on 3 game slates) what you’re looking generally is a quick from the team you’ve stacked.
If you stack Mantuu, Valde, and Aleksib, you’re looking for them to win as quickly as possibly (or go to multiple OT’s) and have Mantuu and Valde each score 75-85 and Aleksib end up at 65-70.
If you play Aleksib as a 1 off, you’re still looking for OG to win, but you’re looking for Aleksi to take far higher than his normal kill share, and score in the 75-85 range himself, with Mantuu and/or Valde finishing well under that mark. If your, let’s say Jame/Yekindar stack outscores the Mantuu/Valde stack you’ve just passed a huge chunk of the field who has Aleksi as part of the 3 stack.
Obviously the probability of the 2nd scenario is lower, however the ownership is generally also low. It also depends on the team for me. I’m not going to play Sanji as the one-off hoping he scores well while his teammates don’t, but I’d definitely do that with arT or Vini. trk also falls into the would play solo category for me, as do Aleksib and Glaive. Golden, Lucas, and NBK are more in the Sanji category where I’ll be using them only in stacks.
My expectations on the overall ownership on the slate is that it should be fairly balanced. We’re likely to see Furia come in slightly overowned, and MiBR and Fnactic slightly underowned. I’ll tilt my underdog exposure to the latter two.
It’s a good day to run more midrange captains. There aren’t a ton of fantasy superstars on the slate, the 2nd and sometimes even 3rd fraggers typically aren’t that far below the top fragger in terms of projection for these teams. Guys like Yekindar, Valde, Vsm, Brollan, Kscerato, and Hen1 are all attractive captain plays on the slate. I’d like to avoid playing two bottom fraggers if at all possible, and the midrange captain will help with that. kNgV is also basically in that same price range, as is Krimz, and I like each of them a good bit at captain as well.
I’d rather upgrade my lineup elsewhere than make the jump in salary up from Valde captain to Mantuu captain for example. Outside of Trk, there’s no one super cheap that I’m inherently interested in at captain. I don’t think the “studs” are worth jamming in at the expensive of punting your captain spot.
That’s it for me, good luck Saturday!