Friday brings us another 4 gamer, as Flashpoint and Dreamhack both continue on. Lock is at 9 am EST again, and the games are:
Mad Lions (57% implied win probability) vs MiBR
Furia (57%) vs Complexity
Astralis (63%) vs Gambit
Big (55%) vs OG
Pricing isn’t quite as loose as it was on Thursday, but it still loose. Not loose to the point where I’m going to completely eliminate bottom fraggers from my pool, but loose enough that I’ll try limit my exposure to at most 1 per lineup. Players who fall into that group for me are:
Lucas1, Leo_drk, Hooxi, Roej, Glaive, Rush, NBK, k1to, Tizian
Again with the loose-ish pricing, that typically leads to underdogs being underowned. Again, though, with the odds so tight and a couple of underdogs being teams people love to play (Complexity and to a lesser extent Gambit), we might not see anyone go massively underowned. If I had to pick 1 team that I think will end up underowned based on their Vegas odds it would be Gambit. If you think the odds are correct (or that Gambit has a better chance to win than the 37% implied by the odds) you should load up on them here. I’m still a bit torn. I thought they should’ve been bigger underdogs to Complexity, then they went out and stomped Col. Astralis on the other hand, looked terrible in a loss to Godsent but them swept G2. I guess I think the odds are about right, so I’ll likely end up with more Gambit than the field. Outside of Gambit, there’s a small edges we can maybe get within teams.
To start, Complexity has been banning (V)inferno recently, and I’d be shocked if they didn’t in this matchup. Vini’s rating on Inferno is way higher than any other map over the past 3 months, and not playing Inferno makes him lose a lot of his luster. You honestly could probably put him in the above group of players I won’t play more than one of in the same lineup.
Speaking of Complexity, I keep mentioning this and I’m really not sure if it’s an edge anymore because it seems the field has caught on, but K0nfig has genuinely been the best fantasy player over the past month plus. Blamef is still really strong, but K0nfig is head and shoulders above Poizon and jks of late. Both of them have struggled, jks in particular. I’m not sure how many discord’s Pat has spread his jks disdain in, but if it’s not too many not playing jks could be an edge, as his 3 month numbers don’t quite reflect how much he’s struggled since joining Col. The only way I’m playing someone other than K0nfig or BlameF from Col is if it’s a 3 stack.
There’s not a ton else that jumps out as an edge within teams to me, as I think the other teams are pretty straightforward. What I previously believed to be an edge, trk actually being the 2nd or at worst 3rd best player for MiBR, no longer think is accurate. He’s been bottom 2 in kills for them in 4 out of their last 5 matches, and the only one he wasn’t at the bottom he had 3 more kills than 2nd to last (the kills were very even as a whole that game). I don’t think he’s unplayable, but I do think vsm has separated himself as 2nd best on the team, and trk has moved back into a conversation of is it him or Leo that’s actually 3rd best.
Before I moved on to captains, I do think that if you’re building 20 or less lineups, you should probably take a stand or two. 20 lineups is simply not enough to cover over all of the good bases with 8 teams in play. For me, that stand would likely be Mad Lions over MiBR, but honestly there’s really no bad team to take a stand on. This is course opens you up to more risk, but it also makes it much more likely you have a lineup that hit’s if your stand turns out to be correct. If you want you can hedge a bit, do something like run 16-18 Mad Lions lineups and then take 2-4 of your lineups and replace the Mad Lions players with MiBR.
With the pricing fairly loose, this is a slate where I’ll be looking for the top raw score in my captain slot. I’ll be limiting my captain pool to the top couple of fraggers on each team. For me that’s (not in order of how much I like them):
Mad Lions: acoR, refrezh
MiBR: kNgV, vsm
Furia: Yuurih, Hen1, Kscerato
Complexity: K0nfig, BlameF
Astralis: Device, Dupreeh
Gambit: Sh1ro, Axile
Big: Syrson, Xantares
OG: Mantuu, Valde
Of those teams, my favorite to get captains from are Complexity, Mad Lions, and Gambit.
For Complexity, I actually prefer K0nfig to BlameF if I have the salary for either, I’m hopeful that since BlameF isn’t super expensive he’ll have the higher captain ownership, leaving K0nfig somewhat low owned. On Mad Lions I like both acoR and Refrezh about equally, acoR probably has a slightly better chance of putting up the slate-breaking score I’m looking for, but he’ll also likely have higher ownership to get along with it. Sh1ro is my preferred captain from Gambit, and again you can likely get both he and Axile at depressed ownership because of the matchup. The upside remains in tact despite the matchup though, as shown in the Col game just the other day.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!