We’re back Wednesday with another slate of CounterStrike. We’re down to a 4 game slate as DK apparently really doesn’t want to include those 7 am EST games. The slate we do have locks at 9 am EST and consists of:
Mad Lions (72%) vs Envy
Furia (50% implied win probability) vs G2
Mouz (70%) vs Godsent
OG (83%) vs Dignitas
Draftkings did a solid job with pricing on this slate. There’s no one that really jumps out as being egregiously mispriced, which should lead to some spread out ownership and a fun slate overall. The only team on the slate that I don’t think is very live is Dignitas, and even then Hallzerk can be playable in a loss, more on that in a bit. I was a little surprised Mad Lions are as big of favorites over Envy as they are, but then again this Envy roster hasn’t shown us much quite yet. I also think that G2 should probably be slight favorites against Furia, especially given that Amanek is playing this tournament. He’s looked really good since Niko joined the time.
With the big favorites priced up, and the G2/Furia game priced fairly accurately, there’s really 3 choices on how to build Wednesday. You can:
A) Play a big underdog
B) Play bottom fraggers on a favorite(s)
C) Try to guess right in Furia/G2 and play value from that game
My preferred option tomorrow is option A. I like Envy and I’m right back on the Godsent train. I finally got off after the got absolutely stomped by this same Mouz team in Emi’s debut. Then they pulled me right back in knocking off Astralis in matchup that literally no one gave them a shot in. They’re dirt cheap, and allow me to get some studs from OG and/or Mad Lions in the same lineup. As usual, Zehn is my favorite play but I’ll have plenty of everyone except Emi. Emi isn’t quite on Krystal’s level, but he’s no Alex either and I don’t really expect him to frag out here, even in a win. From Envy I like everyone except for Legija, Thomas in particular is cheap and he’s played better of late after a couple awful performances to start his Envy career. Calyx and Michu aren’t quite as discounted, but they’re the heavy hitters here. If Envy pulls off the upset you’ll in all likelihood want at least one of them in your lineup. I mentioned earlier that Hallzerk in playable in losses, but I’m not super interested here. At $6.6k you’re really looking for 70ish to win a tournament, and a “good” score in a loss for him would likely be closer to 55 or 60. I’m more likely to avoid Dignitas altogether.
If none of the big underdogs win, I’d be fairly surprised if one (or more) of: Aleksib, roej, NBK, chrisj, bymas, or Sjuush don’t end up in the winning lineup. Sjuush probably shouldn’t even really by in that group as he’s borderline “value” up at $7.4k, but I’m going to include him anyways. Even if you play a couple of cheaper plays from Furia/G2 and nail them, it’s likely you’ll need at the very least a midrange option from the heavy favorites. My assumption is that the ownership on the afore listed players will go OG > Mad > Mouz, although since I included Sjuush I could see that pushing Mad over Mouz. I’m simply going to do the reverse of what I think ownership will be. I’m going to use the most of the Mad bottom fraggers, and then a lesser amount of Mad and OG in the hopes that this leads me to unique lineups.
I’ll have some exposure to the Furia/G2 game, Kscerato on the Furia side and Nexa on the G2 side are a bit underpriced, but in a coinflip where both teams spread their kills out pretty evenly, or at least randomly from game to game, I’m not super attracted here from a DFS perspective. From an actual CS perspective I’m super excited for this game, but it doesn’t scream fantasy standouts to me. I’d rather play the big favorites or big dogs at similar price points (and lower ownership for the dogs).
In my Godsent and Envy lineups I like also playing a captain from those teams, as that really lets me jam the big money players on the other favorites. Zehn and Calyx are my favorites, but I’ll also have some Michu for Envy and everyone but Emi for Godsent.
I’ll have a bit of Mantuu, acoR, and Ropz in lineups where I 3 stack (I think the best build for 4 game slates currently is a 3-2-1, all from different games and never opponents) a big dog, but I’ll likely be looking to the 2nd and 3rd fraggers for my captain ownership on the big favorites. This means Refrezh and Sjuush for Mad Lions, Frozen and Bymas for Mouz, and Valde and Issaa for OG. Of that group, Refrezh and Valde are my favorites.
I’ll have minimal exposure to captains from the Furia/G2 game. Again, there’s a decent likelihood at least a couple players put up captain worthy (price considered) scores here, but it could be legitimately any of the 10 players in this game. If I had to pick a captain here I’d go Niko, Yuurih, Kscerato in that order, but again all 10 players are really in captain play here, even the cheap players.
That’s it from me, good luck Wednesday!