Tuesday we have the start of the final T1 event of the year, the IEM Global Challenge 2020. It’s a lot of the same teams we just saw play in Blast, so a lot of these games are rematches from the past week or two. Lock is at 6 am EST, so make sure to get those lineups in early! The games are:
Vitality (75% implied win probability) vs Big
Astralis (83%) vs Complexity
Navi (63%) vs Furia
Sub Risk Analysis
One note before we jump into sub risk: POIZON IS NOT PLAYING, DON’T PLAY POIZON. Complexity announced last week that their awper needed emergency surgery (apparently he is fine) and will miss at least this coming tournament. They haven’t announced who the sub will be (as of 1pm EST Monday) so obviously that player isn’t on Draftkings.
Okay, now that that’s out of the way back to what’s become our regularly scheduled sub risk. Big vs Vitality is the 1st series of the day, so if you want to wake up a few minutes before 6 am EST to check the map picks (assuming they are out, it’s also the 1st match of the tournament which could lead so some delays with intros and whatnot) you could earn yourself a decent edge. I’m sure I sound like a broken record by now, but for anyone who might be new, Nivera subs in for Shox on Inferno and for Misutaaa on Dust 2. Those are currently the only 2 maps he plays. This is an interesting pick/ban because even though these teams just played on Saturday, you could see a pretty different map pool come Tuesday. Both teams typically perma ban Train. Big will have to choose 1st ban on Tuesday since they’re the lower ranked team. This was also the case on Saturday. On Saturday, Big essentially called Vitality’s bluff and banned Overpass instead of Train, and then Vitality banned Train. It seems likely big call Vitality’s bluff again, but will they switch their ban from Overpass to something else? On Saturday they lost Inferno 16-1 and Dust 2 16-2. I would not be surprised to see either of those maps swapped to their 1st ban instead of Overpass. I expect Vitality to pick whichever one gets let through, or Inferno again if both are let through. Big will most likely big Vertigo again, since they did manage to win that map on Saturday. That’s enough for me to take Nivera out of my player pool. Without seeing the map picks, I’ll also take Shox and Misutaaa out as well, as Vitality will almost definitely pick either Inferno or Dust 2. If Big does switch their ban to Inferno, Shox becomes a very interesting pick.
TLDR: Nivera, Shox, Misutaaa all out of my pool pending being able to see map picks. Shox most likely to play all 3 maps based on Big switching their ban.
The other team with sub risk on this slate is of course Navi. We know that B1t subs in for Flamie on Inferno. We know he doesn’t play on Nuke, Dust 2, and now also Train. We know Navi perma bans Verigo. That leaves just Overpass and Mirage where we don’t know if B1t will play, and if he does, who he’ll sub in for. When these teams played last week, Furia picked Inferno, Navi picked Nuke, and Overpass would have been the 3rd map. I think this series is fairly likely to repeat maps. Furia have to ban Dust 2, they literally never play it. That leaves Navi free to pick Nuke again. The only question really is does Furia pick Inferno again. They lost 16-8 but it’s by far their best map normally. arT and co don’t exactly strike me as the type to stop banging their head against the wall very quickly, so my gut is they’ll pick it again. Since Overpass wasn’t actually played last time I’d expect it to be left as the decider again. How do we handle this for DFS? I’m definitely not playing B1t, who we know will sit at least one map. I’m also not playing Flamie, as it seems likely Inferno is played again. As for Overpass if we get to it, the order I’d say it’s likely person sitting would be B1t > Flamie > Perfecto >>> Electronic. I think there’s 0 chance Boombl4 (IGL) or S1mple (he’s S1mple) sit. I’ll be limiting my Navi exposure to S1mple, Electronic, and Boombl4, although I wouldn’t begrudge you for playing Perfecto. B1t and Flamie are unplayable.
Lastly, there’s Astralis. Fortunately this is by far the most simple to analyze. Bubzkji comes in for Xyp9x on Nuke. That’s it. Now, it does seem likely Nuke is either picked directly or as the decider in this series, and since it’s the last match of the day we won’t know until way after lock. I won’t have Xyp9x in my pool for this reason. One last side note, there’s a remote possibility they starting playing Bubzkji more and subbing him in for different people. They started playing him on Nuke with 0 warning, the same could happen elsewhere. Glaive (IGL) and Device (AWP) are the only ones who should be completely safe from subbing if that happens. You can’t really do anything about this when building lineups of course, play non-Xyp Astralis like you normally would.
Actual Slate Analysis
Finally, let’s move on to the actual slate.
This is a slate where most people are going to want to be on the 3 favorites, and there are a couple of players who make it super easy to do so. Those players are of course RpK and Boombl4. RpK is only $4.2k and Boombl4 is only $4.0k.
I have no idea why RpK is that cheap. He regularly hits well over 10x that salary, plus comes into this matchup in great form. He is an absolute free square on this slate. I will have him in every single lineup, unless I dedicate a couple to Big. That’s unlikely though, as seeing how badly they got decimated on the 2nd and 3rd maps on Saturday makes it hard to want to play them. However, they’re actually probably not a bad tournament play, as the 32-3 scoreline makes us forget they actually did win Map 1 of that series. If they can win map 1 and maybe play a different 3rd map perhaps they can eek out a victory or at least keep it close enough to have better point per dollar scores than Vitality. It’s worth a small consideration if you’re MME’ing, but anything 20 entries or less I’m jamming Vitality, and locking RpK. He’s going to be chalk but the paths to him not paying off are few and far between (Big sweeps, RpK massively bottom frags in close win).
Boombl4 makes a bit more sense to be on the cheap side. It does seem weird still that he’s the cheapest player on the whole slate as a 63% favorite, but unlike RpK it at least makes some sense. His upside is pretty low, as in the 50’s is a good score for him, and he routinely scores sub 40, sometimes even in wins. The reason I would use him is to get S1mple + Zywoo + Device into the same lineup, and I’ll also only use him after I have RpK in the lineup (or if it’s a Big lineup, but even then I shouldn’t need the extreme savings). I do like the idea of cramming all 3 of them into the same lineup, so I’ll likely have some Boombl4.
The other weird pricing thing is that S1mple for some reason is only $8.6k. He’s $400 cheaper than Nivera who only plays on 2 maps. Navi are the smallest favorite, but that’s no excuse. He should absolutely be priced up with Zywoo and Device. Now, Furia should be the most live of the underdogs. It’s possible they make a few adjustments from the matchup last week and come out and beat Furia. Of the underdogs, I’ll have the most exposure to Furia. I like Yuurih and Hen1 for their raw upside, and as I mentioned the last time these teams played I actually like Vini a lot in Furia stacks. The reason being, if Furia are to win, they likely need to win on Inferno, where Vini excels. At only $4.8k he’s an intresting pivot (or partner for to then pay up the rest of your lineup) off of RpK and/or Boombl4. I won’t have him as a 1 off, but I will in stacks.
The only game I haven’t touched on yet is the Astralis vs Complexity matchup. As I already mentioned, Col haven’t announced who will be filling in for Poizon. There’s two ways this could go. They could A) get a lower tier player to fill in, which make the odds completely warranted as they’ll likely get stomped. This is the most likely outcome for sure. However, there is a small chance they get an AWPer from a T1 team to fill in. The reason for this is basically all of the T1 teams that aren’t in this tournament are done for the year, while a lot of the T2/3 teams are still playing in smaller tournaments like 9 to 5. IF Col gets a T1 awper to fill in for Poizon, they actually get a little interesting at their prices. A full strength Col would definitely still be a big underdog to Astralis, but they wouldn’t only have a 20% chance to win. BlameF and K0nfig would definitely become interesting if Col were able to take a map (or more). However, a bad AWPer would make this exceedingly unlikely. If we don’t get news before the slate locks, I’ll be making lineups under the assumption Col gets a T2 or lower AWPer.
In that case, I’ll be loading up on Astralis just like everyone else. Interestingly enough, because of the pricing Astralis may come up a bit underowned. With everyone on Zywoo and S1mple, fitting Device and/or Dupreeh might be a bit tough. Dupreeh in particular is likely to go overlooked in terms of ownership. He projects fine, but there’s absolutely no reason he should be just $400 cheaper than Zywoo and $800 MORE than S1mple. Also, now that Magisk is back to only worrying about fragging, he’s still underpriced relative to his teammates. He should be priced roughly the same as Dupreeh (both of them in the mid 8,000s would make sense to me), instead he’s a $1.6k discount. His numbers are starting to catch up in terms of projecting him, but they aren’t quite there yet so I’m hoping we get a couple more slates of him being underowned. If I can make the salary work, I’m a fan of the Astralis 3 stack with the top 3 (Device, Dupreeh, Magisk) but to fit them you can’t really fit both S1mple and Zywoo. Maybe do that with Big or Furia lineups.
As always, it’s S1mple and Zywoo and then it’s everybody else at captain. With S1mple coming at a substantial discount, he’s likely to have more captain ownership than Zywoo. That alone makes me lean slightly towards Zywoo, although both are obviously great plays.
Device will likely go underowned at captain, as he’s somehow more expensive than both S1mple and Zywoo. A great player in his own right, Device is capable of putting up the top score on the slate as well.
In the mid-range, Magisk is an interesting option. As I already mentioned, his priced hasn’t quite caught up to his role yet. He’s not that much of a discount from S1mple though, so it’s more likely I’ll just go to S1mple.
Yuurih and Hen1 are each good options in Furia lineups. Either can put up a huge score if Furia pulls off the upset. The same can be said for Syrson. Right now he’s the only player on Big that I really trust, as even Xantares hasn’t been playing all that well lately. If Big wins someone or multiple people outside of Syrson will have to step up, but I’m honestly not confident in anyone else right now.
Finally, on the cheap end, I’ll have a good amount of exposure to RpK at captain. Playing him at captain really lets you jam the rest of your lineup with studs, something that’s definitely useful on a top heavy slate like this one.
That’s it from me, good luck on Tuesday!