Saturday bring us another 2 game slate from Blast Premier. Lock is at 10:30 am EST. The games are:
Vitality (72% implied win probability) vs Big
Astralis (56%) vs Navi
On this slate we are up to 3/4 teams with sub risk. Vitalty subs Nivera in for Shox on Inferno, and for Misutaaa on Dust 2. This is the first game so we should get to see map picks just before lock.
In the other game, we still don’t know if B1t subs in on any maps other than Inferno, where he subs for Flamie. Somehow, they’ve still only played 3 maps across their last 3 matches. Astralis only sub Xyp9x out on Nuke. Both maps are definitely possibilities so for me Xyp9x and Flamie are unplayable.
S1mple had an off day Friday, or at least an off map. He was 1 kill above bottom frag on Nuke, a rarity from a Navi win. He finished with 73.5 DK points. He’s that good. He’s also only $8.4k. Navi also beat Astralis earlier this week. I’m sure you can see what I’m getting at, but he is going to be the absolute mega-chalk in this spot. I’m certainly not going to talk you off of him, but it does make an Astralis 3 stack an interesting play. Now that Magisk isn’t calling anymore he can focus strictly on fragging, and he’s a bit underpriced for that role. Glaive is basically free, but I actually like the 3 stack without him (or Xyp9x) if you can afford it.
Big is likely to be the lowest owned team on the slate. There’s good reason for that, as Vitality look amazing right now, but Big is definitely live here. The Astralis top 3 + Big lineup should be low owned, and definitely has high upside if Big pull of the upset. They’re all cheap, but for me the priority is Syrson > Xantares > Tabsen > Tizian > K1to. The only player I’m really locking in to my Big stacks is Syrson though, the rest I’ll rotate through.
On the Vitality side, if you see inferno isn’t picked, Shox is a really solid play. Even if it’s the 3rd map, he’s still playable. If it’s the first or 2nd map, I won’t touch him. For Nivera, if Dust 2 and Inferno are the 1st two maps, he’s playable as part of a Vitality 3 stack, but it’s definitely risky. RpK is cheap again, and will likely be popular. It’s tough to 3 stack Vitality because unless there’s no Inferno the only 3rd option you can really feel good about actually being in the server all series is apEX, and he a pretty safe bet to be near or at the bottom of the scoreboard across all 3 maps.
Zywoo and S1mple are the obvious top choices for captain. S1mple is more affordable, but Zywoo is more likely to win. Both are strong options. The slightly sneakier option is Device. He can score as high as S1mple and Zywoo, but should see much lower ownership.
In the midrange, I like Magisk a good amount, as again for his new (old) role he’s underpriced. Also in the mid-range is Syrson, who is another captain option I like. He’s cheap and also has top score on the slate upside.
I’m not going to go with any value captains, as I really want the top raw score in my captain slate on 2 game slates.
Good luck on Saturday!